North Korea’s expanding ballistic missile program, along with its advancing nuclear weapons project, is a serious and growing threat both to its regional neighbors and the United States. 

That is why the Trump administration’s quest to achieve a more stable diplomatic relationship, after literally decades of hostilities between the West and North Korea, was such a monumental move. 

One North Korean system of note is the Hwasong-7, otherwise known as the Nodong-1 intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM).

The Nodong-1 missile provides North Korea with the capability to reach out and threaten its regional neighbors both with conventional and, likely, nuclear attacks. Nodong-1 can cover all of South Korea and parts of Japan. Its accuracy, however, remains a major source of debate. Many Western analysts assess that the circular error probable for this system is one to two miles, meaning that this system is likely not as effective against military targets as it is against larger, softer targets like the cities of South Korea and parts of Japan. 

Although, these are all estimates made by the West and should be taken with a grain of salt, seeing as the intelligence picture of North Korea is even less informative to observers than black holes. 

North Korea’s Ballistic Missile Threat

One thing to keep in mind, though, is that North Korea’s overall ballistic missile threat has been growing. The technology undergirding the North Korean program has gotten better with each test launch. In turn, these launches have helped to further North Korea’s overall threat to the United States and its regional partners. 

And since 2013, when Pyongyang’s forces developed the capability to miniaturize nuclear warheads, North Korean ballistic missiles can now reliably carry advanced nuclear weapons. 

Anyway, the Nodong is especially helpful to Pyongyang as it seeks to gain leverage over its regional rivals. The presence of the Nodong system in large quantities allows North Korea’s negotiators to gain greater concessions from their rivals at the negotiating table. Should war ever erupt between North Korea and its neighbors, Pyongyang would have a significant capability to deal out death and wanton damage to its foes with the Nodong missile. 

So, it doesn’t only provide great diplomatic capital, but the Nodong-1 missile is a serious strategic advantage for North Korea’s military.

As of 2024, most intelligence assessments indicate that there are only 100 Nodong-1 launchers deployed. And since the Nodong-1 was first developed in the mid-1980s, North Korea’s ballistic missile program has truly evolved into a potent and comprehensive regional (indeed, global threat). Today, North Korea’s arsenal includes the Hwasong-12, Hwasong-14, Hwasong-15, and Hwasong-17, all of which likely overshadow the capabilities of the Nodong-1 IRBM system. 

Yet, the Nodong-1 is an important link in the evolution of North Korea’s ballistic missile program.

What’s more, the Nodong-1 is likely to be upgraded for at least the next decade before Pyongyang ever contemplates phasing this system out of its arsenal entirely. Further, as the incoming Trump administration finds its footing, it is probable that the administration will seek to rekindle its previous good relations with Pyongyang. 

A Powerful Bargaining Chip

A key element of renewed negotiations with North Korea will be in the domain of arms control. Having the 100 or so Nodong-1s still in service will force the Americans and their allies to focus and negotiate on those systems as opposed to newer ones. So, again, the Nodong-1 serves as a useful tool in terms of North Korean diplomacy with the West.

Like so many weapons in the North Korean arsenal, the Nodong-1 is derived from older Soviet-era missile technology. Specifically, the Soviet R-17 Elbrus (a.k.a. “Scud”) missile. The design was adapted by North Korean weapons designers to augment the range and lethality of its Soviet predecessor. Nodong-1 is a single-stage, liquid-fueled missile, which employs a unique combination of unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine (UDMH) and AK-27 (nitric acid with nitrogen oxides) for propulsion. 

What Happens If We Get North Korea Policy Wrong?

Nodong-1 is approximately 53 feet in length, with a diameter of a little less than five feet. Its range is approximately between 745 miles to 932 miles and its payload capacity is about 2,600 pounds. Nodong-1 is a serious threat to its neighbors and the North Koreans should not be underestimated. 

The fact that Nodong-1 is not even the most advanced ballistic missile in North Korea’s arsenal shows how important arms control talks will be in the new Trump administration—and the price of getting America’s North Korea policy wrong.

Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a Senior Fellow at the Center for the National Interest, and a contributor at Popular Mechanics, consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

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