Another very important weapon system we can expect to see these F-16s leverage is the extender range iteration of America’s long-serving Joint Direct Attack Munition, or JDAM. JDAM kits are, effectively, guidance systems that can be installed on conventional “dumb bombs” to turn them into GPS-guided precision munitions, usually capable of engaging targets from ranges of 15 miles or so. In February 2023, however, the U.S. announced its plans to equip Ukraine with the JDAM-ER, which adds a deployable set of wings to the system to triple its engagement range out to 45 miles or better. Russian forces have seen a great deal of success in recent months using a very similar glide-bomb system, meaning Ukraine should soon be able to give them a taste of their own medicine in that regard.

How do Ukraine’s F-16s compare to those operated by the US?

Ukraine’s new (old) fighters are being transferred from the inventories of Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Norway — and while these aircraft do share the same design as America’s in-service F-16s, the hardware and software found onboard is often quite a bit more dated. These F-16AMs were built and delivered in the 1970s, before undergoing what’s called a “Mid Life Update” (MLU) in the early 2000s to bring them more-or-less on par with the Block 50/52 F-16Cs and Ds operated by the United States during Operation Desert Storm in the early 1990s.

One of the most important elements of this update was the inclusion of the Texas Instruments Modular Mission Computer (MMC), which in conjunction with a cockpit refresh helped to bring these 1970s hotrods into the digital age, making it possible to leverage a breadth of new weapons and auxiliary systems through an improved pilot interface.

While Ukraine’s F-16s do lack the Active Electronically Scanned Array radar found in many American F-16s, they do carry the updated AN/APG-66(V2) Fire Control Radar, which is a medium-range pulse-doppler planar array said to offer a 25% improvement in detection range over the aircraft’s original array. This system is capable of tracking up to ten targets simultaneously while scanning the area and offers what’s commonly called a “six on six” AMRAAM capability — which means the radar can support long-range engagements of up to six targets at once using an onboard complement of AIM-120 radar-guided air-to-air missiles.

The original AN/APG-66 was said to have a target detection range out beyond 90 miles (150 km) and the ability to track fighter-sized targets at ranges of roughly 35+ miles (60 km), but the APG-66v2 found in Ukraine’s new F-16s is said to boast a roughly 25% improvement in detection and tracking performance. That pushes those ranges out to roughly 110+ miles for detection and a bit north of 43 miles for targeting fighters, though it should be noted that these are unclassified figures and should be taken with a hearty helping of salt.

As first reported by The Warzone, Ukraine’s F-16s shown in recent images and videos seem to be equipped with Denmark’s Pylon Integrated Dispensing System Plus (PIDS+) and possibly with the Electronic Combat Integrated Pylon System Plus (ECIPS+). These systems, which you can see in the images look sort of like weapon pylons with optical sensors, include integrated radar-warning receivers to notify the pilot of nearby threats and missile approach warning sensors (MAWS) to let them know when trouble’s coming. This will be of particular value in attack and air defense suppression missions, as the Su-25s employed by Ukraine to date don’t even have radar-warning receivers onboard to speak of.

“Our jets don’t have a system to warn about [Russian rocket] launches,” said a Ukranian Su-25 pilot with the call sign Pumba. “It’s all visual-based. If you see them, then you just try to escape by firing off heat traps and maneuvering.”

Depending on the system in use, these integrated systems can either provide additional flares and chaff to confuse inbound missiles or more advanced Northrop Grumman-sourced electronic warfare capabilities.

Be prepared: F-16s will be shot down

Put simply, these are fairly modern F-16s with all the bells and whistles you might expect to find in such a fighter operated by nations without top-tier funding for the latest and greatest gadgets, making them a significant threat to Russian aviators, but not necessarily the technological overmatch one might expect in an engagement between American F-16s and Russian fighters. In practical terms, Ukraine will soon be operating between 60 and 80 total F-16s, which is certainly a significant development but is far from enough to offset the numerical advantage represented by Russia’s fighter fleets.

The F-16 is a highly survivable fighter, as demonstrated by its performance in conflicts like Operation Desert Storm, where one F-16 managed to dodge six incoming surface-to-air missiles in rapid succession without the use of countermeasures at one point — but it’s important to remember that Russia’s S-300 and S-400 air defense systems are the most advanced these fighters have ever squared off against in modern warfare. The F-16 is not a stealth fighter, and as such, is still very vulnerable to being detected and targeted by Russian air defenses, just as the rest of Ukraine’s fighters have been throughout this conflict. But more than that, Russia will be making it their business to engage and destroy as many F-16s as they can as quickly as they can to limit the positive effect these fighters can have on Ukrainian morale and Western support.

Russia’s emphasis on managing the perceptions of the world at large through concerted disinformation campaigns tightly interwoven with real and manufactured news out of the battlefield is sure to be working overtime to find ways to portray these F-16s as ineffectual or highly vulnerable, and that will almost certainly will come with a heavy allocation of resources meant to down these jets for the sake of that narrative (and of course, to minimize their actual strategic impact). These fighters are most vulnerable on the ground, meaning Russian airstrikes will be placing a large emphasis on not just destroying the jets, but runways and support facilities required to operate them.

To put it simply, these aircraft will be operating with a big target on their back, and the nature of warfare all but assures that some of them will go down fighting or likely, be destroyed on their runways. These losses will be framed in the media as a significant development — for the sake of driving clicks in the West, and for the sake of driving narrative out of Russia — but losing aircraft is just what happens in the war-fighting business.

F-16s will not win this war for Ukraine, but they could play a vital part in a broader strategy aimed at doing so — and to use them effectively to that end, risk will be an inherent part of the job. So, as these jets slowly start getting into the fight, it’s important to maintain a realistic perspective about what they are and what they can do… But just as importantly, what they can’t. F-16s are incredible jets that can do some positively mind-bending things, but at the end of the day, they’re not invulnerable, especially when sitting on the tarmac.

Of course, there will be some pro-Russian commenters who will pretend this sort of pragmatic realism is a new development, as Western analysts try to hide their fear that NATO’s super fighters might not be as invincible as we once claimed… But let’s not fall for that tired old narrative either, folks. There’s no such thing as an invincible fighter, tank, or anything else for that matter. There are only tools, strategies, and incredibly brave men and women tasked with employing the first for the sake of the second.

Warfare is a dirty business, and while the F-16 won’t end that for Ukraine, it will equip them to fight just a little bit dirtier than ever before.

And that’s really what transferring these jets has always been about.

About the Author: Alex Hollings 

Alex Hollings is a writer, dad, and Marine veteran.

This article was first published by Sandboxx News.