Summary and Key Points: Ukraine’s recent drone strike on Morozovsk Air Base, deep within Russian territory, successfully destroyed ammunition warehouses and possibly a Su-34 fighter bomber.

-This attack, though impressive in execution, is unlikely to change the broader course of the war. Despite Ukraine’s success in generating Western attention, Russia’s robust industrial capabilities can swiftly replace lost aircraft.

-While the strike underscores Ukraine's resilience, the fundamental realities on the battlefield remain unchanged, with Russia maintaining control over Eastern Ukraine and Crimea. The attack may be more about influencing perceptions and securing further Western support than altering the war’s trajectory.

Ukraine Attacks Russia with Drone from Far Away 

The Ukrainians are masters of generating buzz for their cause in the Western press. Their recent successful strike on the Morozovsk Air Base, 150 miles from the frontlines of Ukraine inside of Russia, has accomplished Kyiv’s goal of getting attention on their failing cause yet again. While the successful strike has again galvanized the West, the fundamental facts on the ground, unfortunately, remain unchanged. 

But it was still a relatively impressive strike against the Russians in their own territory. 

The Attack

Deploying long-range, one-way attack drones, the Ukrainians successfully destroyed ammunition warehouses, which were filled with guided aerial bombs. The warehouses were also being used to keep the Russian Air Force’s Su-34 “Fullback” stocked and ready for action. The Su-34 is one of Russia’s primary platforms deployed against Ukraine. 

In fact, grainy photos indicate that the Ukrainians may have even destroyed a Su-34 while it was parked at the air base. This comes on the heels of the Ukrainian government’s claim in February of this year that “over 50 Su-34 bombers were destroyed or damaged” in Ukraine since the Russian invasion of the country began in February 2022. 

All this is a cause for celebration in Ukraine, where the war has not been going well for the last year. Surely, the destruction of critical infrastructure at a Russian air Base about 150 miles from the frontlines and possibly destroying a Su-34 on the runway are impressive feats. It won’t translate to the battlefield, however. That’s because the Ukrainian military is in no position to turn the tide of battle there.

Ukraine Blew Up an Su-34

As for the Su-34 issue, they’ve been dropping like flies. But, just like flies, whenever you kill one a dozen more suddenly appear to annoy you even more. That’s because Russian industrial capabilities are now at full war-time quotas. The entire society has been put on a war footing. The Su-34 that was destroyed at the Morozovsk Air Base will be easily replaced by another Su-34. 

For years, the Russian and Ukrainian governments have both labeled the current war as an existential one for their countries. In other words, the leaders of both countries are convinced that, for their countries to survive and thrive, the other must be utterly defeated in combat. Given the existential nature of this war, it shouldn’t be surprising that key Russian platforms have been lost in massive numbers.

That’s the nature of both attritional warfare and existential fights. 

The Ukrainians are celebrating the destruction of this air base inside Russia and are promising more attacks like this. Even if they destroyed fifty Su-34s, it wouldn’t matter. The Russians have plenty of other platforms to replace them with. What’s more, the Russians continue to hold Eastern Ukraine and Crimea. They will keep those territories, regardless of whatever long-range drone strikes the Ukrainians deploy against Russia.

An Inconsequential Event

We can all hope that the attacks on Russia by Ukraine were merely an attempt by the Ukrainian government to shape perceptions as they prepare to negotiate an end to the fight. 

Sadly, it is more likely this is an attempt to “sell” the reluctant Americans to give them another tranche of cash to keep fighting a war that Ukraine cannot win (their aim remains to kick Russia out of Eastern Ukraine and Crimea, the latter of which Russian leaders have said they would consider any attempt to be a nuclear casus belli).

Losing a Su-34 on the tarmac—losing the warehouses on the base itself—certainly creates a lot of headlines favoring Ukraine in the Western press. But it doesn’t fundamentally change the direction of the war. It merely prolongs it.

About the Author

Brandon J. Weichert, a National Interest national security analyst, is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, the Asia Times, and The-Pipeline.

Image Credit: Creative Commons.