The war in Ukraine is close to its second anniversary. 

On February 24, 2022, the Russian military launched about 200,000 troops across multiple parts of the border with Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin and his advisers expected a shift campaign that would last from three days to two weeks. The goal was to eliminate the Ukrainian civilian and military leadership and replace them with a proxy government that would do Moscow’s bid. 

Reality, however, proved them completely wrong. 

The Ukrainian military and civilian population stood fast and fought back. Urgent deliveries of Western weapon systems helped the determined Ukrainians to first halt and then push back the Russian forces. 

The new year has come, and with it, I hope that the conflict might end soon. So, what is the state of the conflict, and is it likely that it will end in 2024?

Ukraine War: New Year, Same Challenges 

In June, the Ukrainian military launched its long-awaited counteroffensive in southern Ukraine and the Donbas in the east.

Trained by the West, the Ukrainian heavy brigades were equipped with a plethora of Western weapon systems, including Leopard 2 and Challenger 2 main battle tanks, M2 Bradley and CV90 infantry fighting vehicles, AMX-10 RC tank-killers, M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), M240 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), and M-777 155mm artillery pieces among other weapon systems. 

Despite the promises of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, it failed to create the intended operational breakthrough. Miles upon miles of minefields, fortified villages, extensive trench systems, pre-fixed artillery positions, and suicide drones stopped the Ukrainian heavy brigades on their tracks. Kyiv only managed some tactical gains in southern Ukraine and in the Donbas. 

The failed mutiny by the Wagner Group and the death of its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, over the summer further solidified Putin’s position within Russia. While the war continues on the same wavelength, it is unlikely that the Russian leader’s position is in danger. 

Then, Russian forces launched another large-scale offensive, and battlefield roles changed. The Russian military has made some tactical gains in the Donbas but, like the Ukrainians, doesn’t have the requisite offensive punch to create an operational breakthrough that would genuinely change the shape of the conflict on the ground. 

However, the face of the conflict overall is indeed changing. Russia isn’t the only one launching cruise missiles and suicide drones against civilian targets anymore. After months of strikes against Ukrainian urban centers and critical infrastructure and thousands of innocent Ukrainians killed or maimed, Kyiv has started taking the fight into Russian cities with its own missiles and suicide drones. 

Though the Ukrainian desire for revenge is understandable, such attacks could hinder efforts to get additional military assistance from the West—the United States and its Western partners have repeatedly made it clear that the advanced weapon systems and munitions they provide to Ukraine are solely intended for use against military targets. 

The Ukrainians are now waiting for their turn to strike again. This time around, they will have a better understanding of the Russian defenses and how to penetrate them. However, the Russians will also know how to defend better. 

If the war ended today, Russia would likely be okay with its gains, which include southern Ukraine, the industrial Donbas, Crimea, and large parts of eastern Ukraine. But Ukraine wouldn’t be. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his government have repeatedly stated that their goal is to liberate the whole of the country. It would be hard to find a better time than now to achieve this. So, unfortunately for the innocent people involved, the war will continue to drag out in 2024 until one side achieves a key operational breakthrough and takes advantage of it. 

About the Author

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense and national security journalist specializing in special operations. A Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), he holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

All images come via Shutterstock.