Summary and Key Points: Ukraine is navigating a precarious situation with its incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast. While Kyiv's forces have captured several settlements since the surprise offensive began on August 6, the Russian military has now launched counterattacks using elite paratroopers and naval infantry.

-This move aligns with Ukraine's strategy to draw Russian forces away from the frontline within Ukraine. However, the success of this strategy hinges on whether Ukraine can pin down significant Russian resources with fewer of its own.

-At the same time, Ukraine must avoid losing key logistical hubs like Pokrovsk and Vuhledar to maintain its defense. Despite these maneuvers, Russian casualties remain high, with over 1,000 troops lost in the past 24 hours.

Kursk Offensive: Ukraine's Risky Strategy Against Russia

Ukraine is balancing on a tightrope with its gamble in Russia.

Although the Kremlin has diverted troops and resources to crush the Ukrainian salient in the Kursk Oblast, the Russian military still maintains pressure along the contact line inside Ukraine.

Fighting on a Tightrope 

In its latest operational estimate of the conflict, British Military Intelligence assessed that “Russia has continued a high tempo of offensive operations across multiple areas of the frontlines.”

The Ukrainian military launched a surprise offensive inside Russia on August 6, catching the Kremlin off-guard. Since then, Ukrainian forces have expanded their foothold in the Kursk Oblast, capturing scores of settlements.

The Russian military is starting to counterattack against the Ukrainian salient. 

“In Russia’s Kursk oblast, where Ukraine has maintained control of approximately 800-900 sq km of territory since mid-August 2024, Russian forces have begun a counter-offensive,” British Military Intelligence stated. 

The Ukrainian military has been targeting transportation infrastructure in the region and behind the frontlines to frustrate Russian logistical lines and complicate an influx of mechanized reinforcements. However, the Russian military doesn’t seem phased by this and has continued to pour forces into the salient.

“Spearheaded by Airborne and Naval Infantry units, Russian forces have attacked Ukrainian positions in the west of the salient and have highly likely retaken several villages,” British Military Intelligence added. 

This Russian commitment of elite VDV paratroopers and naval infantry units is exactly what the Ukrainian military wanted when it opened another front in Russia – the logic is that these units aren’t fighting in Ukraine. But that logic really only means much if the units and resources committed to attracting and pinning down Russian units and resources are fewer than those that would otherwise be needed to do the same thing in Ukraine. Simply put, if the Ukrainian military can pin down a lot of Russian units and resources in Russia with limited troops of its own – partly because of the high reputational stakes for the Kremlin – Kyiv is getting something out of the incursion. 

At the same time, however, the Ukrainian military needs to maintain its defensive posture inside Ukraine. Losing key logistical and operational hubs like Pokrovsk and Vuhledar in exchange for some square miles of Russian territory is not a favorable trade for the Ukrainian military. 

“In eastern Ukraine, Russian forces have made gradual advances around Vuhledar and to the southeast of the logistics hub of Pokrovsk. However Russia has not advanced significantly towards Pokrovsk itself within the past week,” British Military Intelligence concluded. 

Russian Casualties in Ukraine

Against the backdrop of the Ukrainian incursion into Russia and the Russian counterattacks, the Russian forces continue to take very heavy casualties in the fighting. Over the past 24 hours, the Russian military, paramilitary units, and pro-Russian separatists lost approximately 1,060 troops killed, wounded, and captured. They also lost 29 drones; 28 tactical vehicles and fuel trucks; 15 artillery pieces and multiple launch rocket systems; 8 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers; 6 pieces of special equipment; and 3 main battle tanks damaged or destroyed.

About the Author: 

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

Image Credit: Creative Commons.