Summary and Key Points: Over a month after Ukraine’s surprise offensive into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, the Russian military has launched a series of counteroffensives to reclaim lost territory.

-Russian forces are attempting to squeeze Ukraine’s salient but have achieved only minor tactical gains. Ukrainian forces are using this incursion to force Russia to commit resources away from key fronts in Ukraine.

-Structural issues in Russia’s military, including poor command and control, a lack of combined arms capability, and high casualties, are impeding Russian progress.

-Reports estimate that Russia has lost over 630,000 troops, with daily casualties exceeding 1,000 in recent months.

Russian Military Faces Stiff Resistance in Kursk, Over 630,000 Troops Lost

More than a month after the surprise Ukrainian offensive into Russia, the Russian military is launching a series of counteroffensives to push the Ukrainian forces back over the border.  

The Russian forces are trying to squeeze the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast. On the other hand, the Ukrainian military continues to use the incursion into Russia as a distraction to force the Russian army to commit troops and resources there and not in Ukraine.  

Russian Counteroffensives in Kursk  

“Russian forces began counterattacks along the western edge of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast and reportedly seized several settlements northeast and south of Korenevo on September 10 and 11,” the Institute for the Study of War assessed in its latest operational estimate of the war.  

But the Ukrainians aren’t staying put. They are countering the Russian counterattacks with their own localized offensives aimed at throwing off balance the Russian operations.  

Thus far, the Russian forces haven’t had any significant success in pushing the Ukrainians back. Besides some tactical advances, the Russian military is struggling to achieve operational-level victories. This is mainly due to structural issues and how the Russians fight.  

The Russian military has shown an inability to conduct combined arms, large-scale operations. As a result, Russian commanders often have to rely on small unit actions to achieve tactical gains on the battlefield. These units usually range from squads to companies, with battalions sometimes getting involved. 

Anything more than that, the Russian command and control functions break down. The issue is only getting worse for the Russian military due to the high level of casualties, which forces ill-trained troops to the frontlines and the structural issue of a few non-commissioned officers in the ranks of the Russian armed forces.  

“Available visual evidence suggests that Russian forces counterattacking in Kursk Oblast are operating in company-sized units and may be using elements of more combat-experienced units to conduct counterattacks,” the Institute for the Study of War assessed.  

Russian Casualties in the Ukraine War 

In the meantime, the Russian forces continue to take very heavy casualties in the fighting.  

Over the past twenty-four hours, the Russian military, paramilitary units, and pro-Russian separatist forces lost approximately 1,270 men killed, wounded, and captured, according to the latest data released by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.  

Moreover, Kyiv assesses that the Russian forces lost damaged, or destroyed approximately ninety-three tactical vehicles and fuel trucks, seventy-five artillery guns and multiple launch rocket systems, forty-three unmanned aerial systems, seventeen infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, eleven main battle tanks, two air defense systems, two pieces of special equipment, and one aircraft.  

Overall, the Russian forces have very likely lost over 630,000 men in about 930 days of fighting. For the past 120 days, the Russian military has been losing a minimum of 1,000 men every day. And yet, this is the strategy of the Kremlin: throw men against the Ukrainian defenses without any regard for the safety of its troops.  

About the Author

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

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