Summary and 5 Key Points You Need to Know: The war in Ukraine remains a brutal stalemate, despite some movement on the battlefield, particularly after Ukraine’s invasion of Russia’s Kursk Oblast.

-Russian forces continue to suffer heavy casualties, with over 1,150 lost in the past 24 hours, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

-However, Moscow has shown impressive force generation, with around 500,000 troops now deployed in Ukraine.

-Despite significant losses, Russia’s strategy of attrition, reminiscent of World War One, is slowly grinding down Ukrainian defenses, especially around Pokrovsk and Vuhledar.

-Yet, Ukrainian counteroffensives have the potential to reverse Russian gains quickly.

Russia’s Attrition Strategy in Ukraine: Heavy Casualties but Slow Progress

Another day, another report on how the fighting in Ukraine is unfolding. Things aren’t looking too promising for either side.

Although the battlefield is in movement, especially after the Ukrainian invasion of Russia’s Kursk Oblast, there is an element of stalemate, as the contact line has been largely static for several months now. 

The Russians are throwing men and heavy weapons systems at the problem, trying to strongarm a solution. On the other hand, the Ukrainians, with their more restricted resources, continue to rely on grit and guile to gain a favorable position in the fighting. 

Russian Casualties and Strategy 

The Russian military continues to take heavy casualties. According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, which releases fairly accurate data, over the past 24 hours, the Russian military, paramilitary units, and pro-Russian forces lost approximately 1,150 men killed, wounded, and captured. In addition, Russian forces lost about 44 tactical vehicles and fuel trucks; 33 unmanned aerial systems; 26 artillery pieces and multiple launch rocket systems; 9 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers; 3 main battle tanks; and 2 pieces of special equipment. 

Overall, in almost 930 days of fighting, Russian forces have taken approximately 630,000 casualties, or about 677 troops killed, wounded, and captured every day. During days with the heaviest fighting, Russian forces can take up to 1,500 losses, while during periods of relative quiet, the casualty figures can drop to as low as 300. 

The initial Russian invasion force that crossed the Ukrainian borders on February 24, 2022, numbered around 200,000. In less than three years of fighting, the Kremlin has lost more than three times its initial military commitment to the war. 

Despite those catastrophic casualties, the Russian military has shown an impressive force generation capability. The latest Western intelligence estimates put the number of Russian troops in Ukraine, including the Crimean Peninsula, at around 500,000. 

Clearly, the Kremlin can sustain this war for a long period of time. Indeed, this is the strategy of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his advisers. Seeing that it can’t defeat Ukraine on technology or wits alone, the Kremlin has turned the conflict into a bloodbath similar to World War One, but on a much smaller scale. Untrained and ill-motivated Russian troops are thrown onto Ukrainian defenses to wear them down. Progress is measured in the hundreds of yards. The capture of Bakhmut, a town with little strategy value, cost Russian forces around 100,000 men.

But this unimaginative Russian strategy isn’t completely without success. The Ukrainian defensive line is under heavy pressure, especially around Pokrovsk and Vuhledar in the Donbas. Slowly but steadily, the Russians are making some progress. 

And yet, that progress can be wiped out in a matter of a few days, as the Ukrainian military has repeatedly shown in the past through its surprising counteroffensives in the east and south. 

About the Author: 

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

Image Credit: Creative Commons and/or Shutterstock.