Summary and Key Points: Ukraine's incursion into Russia’s Kursk region aims to disrupt the Russian military's operations, forcing the Kremlin to relocate elite units from Ukraine to defend the region.

-The Ukrainian offensive, intended to ease pressure on the Ukrainian front lines, has prompted Russia to draw forces from lower-priority sectors in Ukraine, including elite marine and paratrooper brigades.

-This maneuver has shifted the operational initiative to Ukraine, challenging Russia's summer-long dominance. Meanwhile, Russian forces continue to suffer heavy casualties, with nearly 610,000 losses reported since the conflict began, and projections suggest this could rise to 700,000 by year’s end.

Ukraine’s Kursk Incursion: A New Challenge for Russia’s Military Strategy

Ukraine’s Kursk incursion into Russia is an attempt to upend the Russian military's operational plans. For the time being, the Kremlin is resisting this attempt, but it may soon have to change its stance. 

The Operational Initiative in Kursk

The stated goal of the Ukrainian invasion is to ease pressure on the contact line inside Ukraine. In the opening days of the offensive operation, the Russian military snubbed the Ukrainian foray. But the Kremlin soon understood the danger and has been relocating forces from Ukraine to Russia to counter Ukrainian advances. Still, the Russian high command is exercising operational discipline and isn’t moving forces from just anywhere. 

“The Russian military likely continues to redeploy forces from lower priority sectors of the frontline in Ukraine to the frontline in Kursk Oblast,” the Institute for the Study of War assessed in its latest operational update. 

Some of the units that have been located in Kursk Oblast are the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, 11th Airborne (VDV) Brigade, 56th VDV Regiment, and 51st VDV Regiment. These are elite marine and paratrooper units and probably the best that the Kremlin can throw into the fighting. 

The Russian high command has drawn these units from Ukraine’s east and south. For example, the 810th and 155th Naval Infantry Brigades were previously spotted fighting in nearby Kharkiv Oblast in Ukraine. And the 11th VDV had been involved in offensive operations around Chasiv Yar in the Donbas. 

“The Russian military command is resisting operational pressures to redeploy forces away from its high priority offensive effort to seize Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast and will likely continue to draw forces from lower priority offensive operations elsewhere throughout the theater to defend in Kursk Oblast,” the Institute for the Study of War added. 

Now, the ball is in the hands of the Ukrainians to increase the pressure in the Kursk salient and create additional threats that would force the Russian high command to relocate additional forces from Ukraine back to Russia. 

It is all about the operational initiative. All summer long, the Russian military held the initiative and launched repeated offensives along the contact line. But with this foray into Russia, the Ukrainian military has wrestled back the operational initiative, even if briefly, and is now dictating the pace of the war to some extent. 

Russian Casualties in the Ukraine War

Meanwhile, Russian forces continue to take heavy casualties in the fighting. According to the latest data released by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense – they tend to be fairly accurate – over the past 24 hours, the Russian military, volunteer units, and pro-Russian separatist forces lost approximately 1,140 men killed, wounded, or captured. They also lost 80 tactical vehicles and fuel trucks; 48 artillery guns and multiple launch rocket systems; 39 unmanned aerial systems; 17 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers; 13 pieces of special equipment; 4 main battle tanks; and 1 air defense weapon.

Overall, Russian forces have lost close to 610,000 men in more than 900 days of fighting. At the current pace, Moscow’s losses could reach 700,000 before the end of the year. 

About the Author: 

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

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