What You Need to Know: The U.S. Air Force is pursuing advanced modernization programs, including the NGAD sixth-generation fighter, CCA drone swarms, and the NGAS refueling system, to maintain air superiority amid potential conflict with China. However, the high costs of these programs are prompting difficult funding decisions.

-Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall highlighted the fiscal challenge at the recent Airlift/Tank Association symposium, stressing that each program is interconnected and essential for countering China’s growing capabilities.

-With a predicted $300 million per NGAD fighter, Kendall emphasized the need for increased investments as modernization demands and the looming threat of a China-Taiwan conflict grow.

The U.S. Air Force is modernizing. With the 2030s coming up fast and the threat of near-peer conflict with China always on the horizon, the Air Force is working on several ambitious programs to ensure the U.S. military enjoys air superiority in a potential conflict.

Some of the programs currently in the works include the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program that will produce a sixth-generation stealth fighter jet, and the Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) drone swarms, and the Next Generations Aerial-refueling System (NGAS).

However, the Air Force and Congress have realized that these programs don’t come cheap. And with the recent “traumatic” experience with the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter’s price tag of around $2 trillion, the Air Force will need to prioritize some programs over others.

Taking-off Costs

During the Airlift/Tank Association symposium earlier in November, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said that the Air Force will have to find creative solutions to its future force structure due to the high costs of the programs under development.  

“These three potential new-design platforms are all tied together, all in an Agile Combat Employment context,” Kendall said about the three ongoing programs.

The Air Force Secretary stated that they are connected both in an operational setting, as well as in a fiscal one, with procurement decisions intertwined in a major way.

Air Force leaders have often said that to effectively counter China, the NGAD, NGAS, and CCA are all important capabilities that will help the U.S. military maintain air superiority.

“Right now, given our commitments, our resources, and strategic priorities, it’s hard for me to see how we can afford any combination of those new designs,” Kendall said.

Of course, Kendall’s message is as much directed to his generals as to the aerospace industry and their steep pricing. Some of the estimates for the NGAD, which will replace the F-22 Raptor in the air superiority mission, put costs for each fighter jet to as much as $300 million.

The specter of a near-peer conflict with China is always hovering in the background and influences how the Air Force makes decisions about which programs to greenlight.

“There comes a point where you simply need more resources to accomplish more missions. This is particularly true now,” the Air Force Secretary added.  

Kendall had recently stated that he believes that the Chinese military will be ready to invade and capture Taiwan by 2027, regardless of whether the U.S. military intervenes. That assessment aligns with statements from other U.S. defense officials about the possibility of a conflict with China over Taiwan in the upcoming years.

“Modernization bills for both Air Force legs of the nuclear triad are coming due in the next few years. We must have robust airbase defense, and we must attack our potential adversaries’ long-range kill chains,” Kendall stated.

“All of these are absolutely essential for the success of the Air Force and Space Force and the joint force, and all that requires substantial [sic] increased investments,” the Air Force Secretary concluded.

About the Author

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

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