NGAD for China? As America and China began to consider one another more closely, as potential peers, both nations are posturing to best the other with respect to military technology.

One realm in which the technological advantage is expected to be particularly fierce is military aviation.

The US has long held an advantage over China with respect to the quality of military airframes. The US is a pioneer, after all, creators of the X-15 and SR-71 and B-2 and F-22. China is a relative late comer.

But China is catching up – in part through emulating (think industrial espionage) their American counterparts.

To date, the US and China are the only nations to have mass produced fifth-generation fighters. (America has produced the F-22 and the F-35 while China has produced the J-20.) And both nations are racing to be the first to field a sixth-generation fighter – which would be the first in the world.

NGAD: China vs. the USA? 

How far along each nation is in its quest to field a sixth-generation fighter is not entirely clear.

But “China’s military aviation industry has been releasing more and more concept art for a future stealth fighter on social media,” Popular Mechanics wrote.

“While such computer-rendered designs are anything but finalized, one thing seems clear: the future for China’s sixth-generation stealth fighter is likely a tailless one – just as appears to be the case for America’s own Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) stealth fighter.”

Concept art should be taken with a kernel of salt, but the fact that China’s sixth-generation design mirrors America’s has raised some eyebrows.

China’s Chengdu J-20 fifth-generation fighter bears a striking resemblance to America’s Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.

The resemblance is not a coincidence; China bought highly protected F-35 information in an attempt to copy the fifth-generation fighter.

China’s sixth-generation fighter’s shape “will lead to better radar evasion capability and likely enable high speed flight and maneuverability,” defense expert Dr. Brett M. Eastwood reported. “The cockpit will probably use machine learning and artificial intelligence and the pilot could have augmented reality to better fly the airplane. It could be manned or unmanned and have the ability to control a “Loyal Wingman” drone for better situational awareness and added firepower.”

More NGAD Ideas 

The head of the Air Force’s Air Combat Command said at last year’s Air and Space Force conference that China’s sixth-generation fighter will be a “system of systems.” Just like the NGAD.

A system of systems would make the Chinese sixth-generation jet “a quarterback in the sky that could even include the use of lasers and hypersonic weapons,” Eastwood wrote. “A system of systems concept could allow the Chinese fighter to do things like control flights of manned or swarming unmanned craft and collect intelligence data and engage in electronic warfare.”

According to Kelly, China’s program will exponentially improve on “processing power and sensing capabilities.” Kelly believes that the Chinese program is “on track,” in part because the Chinese do not argue about whether or not the program is relevant. The US NGAD program is ahead now, but China could catch up. According to the chief designer of Chengdu Aerospace, China’s sixth-generation fighter will be ready by 2035.

As Eastwood notes, “here we go again with China,” who has a ““me too” syndrome with the U.S. military. China doesn’t often debate about the need for future arms systems, they just seem to forge ahead. There is no Congress having oversight of the acquisition process that can slow down a program.” So even though “the mockup and design drawings may be crude” and even though “China may be behind the United States,” China excels “in finding ways to catch up.” And “if that means copying an American design, so be it.”

Will China Get a 6th Generation Fighter First? 

Personally, I’m glad that America employs Congress, an elected and publicly elected body, to maintain oversight over the American military.

And as far as China is concerned, I don’t blame them for pushing ahead, by any means necessary, to keep pace with American military development. America has, after all, “pivoted toward Asia” and committed to tempering China’s rise. If a foreign nation were pivoting towards America, intending to temper America’s rise, I assume that America would monitor that nation’s defense technologies with paranoid vigilance, and would use any means necessary, including espionage, to keep pace with those defense technologies.

As for who will be the first to field a sixth-generation fighter, safe money is on the Americans – who have always been a step ahead of the Chinese with respect to aerospace development.

And remember, the US still spends nearly three times more on its military than China. Staying ahead of China’s aerospace capabilities will become an increasingly urgent priority of American military spenders – especially if China is deemed to be making legitimate progress on its sixth-generation design.

About the Author

Harrison Kass is a defense and national security writer with over 1,000 total pieces on issues involving global affairs. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.

Image Credit: Creative Commons.