Summary and Key Points: As tensions rise between China and Taiwan, a growing minority opinion suggests that China's aggression might take the form of a blockade rather than a direct invasion. While China has the capability to convert its civilian roll-on-roll-off fleet for amphibious landings, the risks and challenges of a full-scale invasion could deter such a move.

-Instead, China's "Anaconda strategy" could involve a phased approach, including cyberattacks, economic warfare, and encirclement of Taiwan through control of surrounding seas.

-This strategy would aim to weaken Taiwan's resistance over time without the need for immediate military confrontation. The West's preoccupation with other global conflicts could make this approach even more viable for China.

Beyond Invasion: How China Might Strangle Taiwan with a Blockade

China might try to invade Taiwan soon, and a minority opinion has arisen about what form the aggression will take.

Yes, it is more than possible that China will try to invade the island. The naysayers who believe otherwise point to things like China’s apparent lack of amphibious landing craft. 

These doubters overlook China’s massive civilian roll-on-roll-off fleet that just happens to be built to military specifications. If needed, these boats can easily be converted into military transports for the kind of amphibious landing across the Taiwan Strait that China would undertake.

But that’s beside the point. 

Some Factors Working Against a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan

Despite China’s impressive push to modernize its military, and irrespective of its growing technological capabilities, there are limiting factors that affect Chinese President Xi Jinping’s calculations. 

The Chinese value their sons’ lives. Further, they view most of the people in Taiwan as fellow Chinese. Whatever disagreements exist between the mainland and the island-democracy, few in China want to risk their precious sons’ lives fighting fellow Chinese on Taiwan.

Nevertheless, Xi has made the conquest of Taiwan a centerpiece of his overall political agenda. Everyone knows it, and he is hemmed in by his own rhetoric and ambitions. He will not abandon them simply because the task is hard. Xi’s experience being sent to work in the fields as punishment for his father’s alleged disobedience to Mao Zedong shows that Xi rarely shirks from difficult tasks. 

The ”Anaconda Strategy”

A recent study conducted by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) posits an alternative possibility that I postulated in these pages some time ago: a Chinese blockade of the island.

The blockade would be comprehensive, involving all elements of Chinese statecraft. It would likely use a phased approach rather than a sudden assault on the island.

For years, China has been probing both Taiwan and the island’s Western backers, seeing what they would do in response to obvious provocations. They have learned the West will always seek to avoid direct conflict, while the Taiwanese are not well prepared for the kind of attack that China is plotting. There’s also the added quandary of political will and logistics, neither of which favors the Taiwanese side against a rapacious Chinese foe. 

Beyond that, the Americans are strained and distracted. China knows this. Taipei does, too. This explains why Taiwan has so desperately attempted to marry its cause to that of Ukraine. 

But the longer the Ukraine war drags on, the less likely that Taiwan will receive its own much-needed armaments from the West. And with the Middle East again heating up, the chances of American reinforcements to Taiwan are low. 

The Slowly Twisting Knife Cuts Deepest 

Should China take a more circuitous approach to conquering Taiwan than invading outright, Beijing could likely stage-manage its phased takeover of the island, given the West’s reluctance to engage. That’s why what FDD describes as the Anaconda strategy should not be ignored. Any Chinese run on Taiwan will be asymmetrical and will involve kinetic and non-kinetic moves fused together.

At most, Chinese forces would physically take Taiwan’s outlying islands of Kinmen, Matsu, and Penghu. This would box Taiwan in. Chinese forces would then control the South China Sea and could probably wrestle the East China Sea away from Japan (especially if Tokyo believed Washington would not come rushing to its aid). 

From there, China could encircle the island with its navy, subject it to ceaseless cyberattacks and economic warfare, all in an attempt to wear down the resistance of the Taiwanese people. Only then would China consider landing fresh troops on the island. 

The prevailing view that China would invade Taiwan immediately should not be discounted. But there are many factors working against China in an invasion scenario – including geography.  

A blockade coupled with ceaseless cyberattacks and economic warfare – all while waging a global disinformation campaign to manage perception – just might be the way that China goes into Taiwan. And it just might work.

Author Experience and Expertise: Brandon J. Weichert

Brandon J. Weichert, a National Interest national security analyst, is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, the Asia Times, and The-Pipeline. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is due October 22 from Encounter Books. Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

All images on page Shutterstock. Main image is a generic cruise missile image. 

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