Summary and Key Points: Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent nuclear threats against Ukraine and NATO have raised concerns. Despite these threats, a nuclear strike seems unlikely as the war currently favors Russia, with its forces on the rise and Ukraine's recent counteroffensive faltering.

-However, Putin's unpredictability and the Kremlin's historical willingness to take drastic measures make future actions uncertain.

-Should the situation deteriorate for Russia, the risk of nuclear escalation could increase, leaving global leaders wary of Putin's next move.

Putin's Nuclear Threats: Is Russia's Advantage in Ukraine Keeping Them at Bay?

Are you certain Russian President Vladimir Putin won’t use nuclear weapons against Ukraine?

If you ask this question in Washington, D.C., and around the European capitals, you will get contradictory answers.

Putin and Kremlin officials have been making regular nuclear threats against not only Ukraine but also NATO.

The latest such threat came yesterday during a joint press conference with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un in North Korea.

Nuclear Threats from Putin...Again

Putin implied in recent press statements that he could authorize the Russian military to launch a nuclear strike—most likely tactical—against Ukraine if the war goes against him.

“Putin implicitly threatened to use nuclear weapons if the West enables Ukraine to decisively defeat Russia in order to undermine the international community's cohering strategic vision of support for Ukraine,” the Institute for the Study of War assessed in a recent update on the war in Ukraine.

Putin’s coded nuclear remarks likely came in response to recent statements by NATO officials about the need for increased nuclear readiness with an eye toward Russia.

The West has braced for a Russian nuclear strike before, and at some point, the CIA was working on contingency plans on how to prevent such an attack. As of now, however, it seems highly unlikely that Putin will order a nuclear strike for a simple reason: his forces are on the rise.

Currently, the war is going in Moscow’s favor. The last large-scale Ukrainian counteroffensive last summer failed to achieve the intended operational breakthrough, despite Kyiv throwing into combat its most elite units equipped with Western weapon systems, such as Leopard 2, Challenger 2, and M1 Abrams main battle tanks and M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles.

Not only did the Ukrainian military fail to achieve an operational breakthrough, but the Russian forces also went on the counteroffensive and are now pressuring the Ukrainians along the contact line.

Russia Wins in Ukraine - but at a Massive Cost 

To be sure, the Russian forces are taking devasting casualties. In May alone, Moscow lost close to 40,000 men, or more than 1,000 a day, killed, wounded, or captured. Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense assesses—and is largely corroborated by Western intelligence services—that Moscow has lost more than 530,000 men in the fighting so far. Casualties in heavy weapon systems are also high, with the Russian military losing every day more than 100 main battle tanks, artillery pieces, infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, and unmanned aerial systems.

However, Russia has shown a remarkable force generation capability. Despite losing more than twice the initial invasion force, the Russian military has as many as 500,000 men in Ukraine. Their quality isn’t the best, but they make do for the Kremlin’s purposes.

So, right now, the Kremlin doesn’t have a reason to launch a nuclear weapon against Ukraine. However, if the situation on the ground changes, then that is another issue, and no one can accurately predict what a dictator like Putin can do.

About the Author: Biography and Military Expertise 

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

All images are Creative Commons. 

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