On the morning of August 6, while the whole world was expecting Iran to strike Israel and the start of a new large-scale war in the Middle East, a stunning piece of news broke concerning Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk. It even seemed as if Iran had decided to postpone its retaliation against Israel pending the outcome in Kursk. 

After all, there are more pressing issues than Hamas. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has effectively led to a scenario in which post-World War II agreements are no longer valid, and no new ones appear to be forthcoming. On August 6, the territorial integrity of Russia was violated. For the first time since World War II, Russia lost territory to an external invasion, now totaling 500 square kilometers.

Recent incidents of territorial integrity violations include Russia's occupation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and Armenia’s former occupation of Karabakh. However, these violations were seen by the West as minor infractions that were not cause for concern, as they served their own goals. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was the culmination of multiple violations of international law, this time in Europe. It quickly became clear that the former liberal world order under America's leadership no longer exists. 

The Helsinki Accords on the inviolability of borders or the Budapest Memorandum, where Russia's signature still stands, guaranteeing Ukraine’s territorial integrity in exchange for its renunciation of nuclear weapons, has become scrambled beyond recognition. Nothing can stop any power now, and in a situation like this, any country standing aside from conflicts can invade a neighboring nation to seize a piece of territory under the pretext of an anti-terrorist operation or the protection of its borders, as it is now the new status quo.

At the start of the war, Western countries supplied Ukraine with exclusively defensive weapons, but in reality, warfare is currently taking place also on Russian territory, and all Western weapons are being deployed there as well. While unconfirmed, the attack on Kursk was likely designed in collaboration with American specialists, as Ukraine is too dependent on American weapons and money to survive in a war with an enemy that surpasses it both in numbers and armament.

The location and timing of this operation were not chosen randomly. The Battle of Kursk, between Germany and the USSR, is considered the battle that determined the outcome of World War II. 

Will Russia Win Now?

Understanding the objectives of this operation is necessary to respond to this question. Within a few days, officials, political technologists, and military specialists presented different interpretations of the battle goals in Kursk.

When a country retreats under the attacks of a more numerous and better-equipped enemy army, it does not undertake such a raid to boost the morale of its soldiers but to lower the enemy's morale or destabilize the situation there, as additional forces and weapons are needed to hold the captured territory. 

Chess Not Checkers

Imagine that you are playing chess, and your opponent attacks you, causing you to lose piece after piece. You should not launch an attack to scare the opponent. While this kind of bluff can be effective against a beginner, it would only signal your defeat in a match versus a more experienced player. 

In such a situation, you only attack when you are convinced that this move will improve your position on the board, allow you to capture the opponent's pieces, and thereby stabilize the situation. But most importantly, you need to calculate the opponent's possible countermoves and see a breach in their defense, which will become the key to victory in this game.

It was probably predicted that Russia would relocate combatants from Donbas to Kursk, Bryansk, and Belgorod after this offensive, which would help to relieve the situation in Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar. The capture of Sudzha may somehow influence negotiations, but it must be understood that Vladimir Putin will go to any lengths to remove the Ukrainians from there. 

There are already rumors of a planned mobilization in Russia, and it is becoming clear that the authorities will do everything possible to address the problem of soldier shortages to neutralize any potential advantage for the Ukrainians. The situation in Donetsk and Luhansk is currently difficult, and the main goal of the military operation in Kursk is to turn the tide on the front. It is possible that Ukraine took into consideration Russia's counteractions, and a target for the next offensive was identified.

This attack is a diversionary maneuver to elongate the front and force the withdrawal of troops from other directions, thereby weakening other front lines, such as Crimea. If this hypothesis is correct, we might expect a large-scale military operation in the South or other directions soon. In any case, the authorities of Ukraine and their Western partners have their calculations, and shortly, we will see what lies behind the new Battle of Kursk.

The end of the Russo-Ukrainian war cannot be expected within a short period. As long as there are options to gain a more advantageous position on the battlefield, no one will agree to the negotiations. This implies that the major pivotal battles between the supporters of a bipolar and multipolar world await us in the future.

Ahmad Shiraliyev graduated with an MA in Diplomacy and International Relations from the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy. He has written an article for the journal of the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences, “Science and Life,” as well as on other matters, both foreign and domestic.

Image: Alexey Soloukhin / Shutterstock.com.