In late December 2017, a senior Chinese official serving as liaison to the Taiwan Affairs Office confidently stated that Beijing maintains an “overwhelming advantage” against Taiwan for years to come. The official, Liu Junchuan, predicted that “the economic, political, social, cultural and military conditions for achieving the complete reunification [sic] of the motherland will become even more ample.” He also argued that “the basic situation of the Taiwan Strait continuing to develop in a direction beneficial to us will not change, and time and momentum are on our side.” Chinese confidence should not get out ahead of itself. Because of its pressure tactics, Beijing may inadvertently push Taiwan in a more extreme direction. Tsai is probably the best Taiwanese leader China can hope for right now. Despite her reputation in Beijing, she is actually quite pragmatic.

Chinese leaders have ample reason to feel good about Taiwan, namely because Tsai had been focusing her energy on stabilizing cross-Strait relations based on the status quo rather than moving toward independence. Beijing should recognize that Tsai is indeed a moderate, and yet, Beijing is harming relations with Taiwan under Tsai through its actions. Because of its pressure tactics, Beijing may inadvertently push Taiwan in a more extreme direction.

Derek Grossman is a senior defense analyst at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation. He formerly served as the daily intelligence briefer to the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs at the Pentagon.

This article originally appeared in the Global Taiwan Brief.

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