Editor's Note: This is part of a symposium asking what happens if Kim Jong-un died. To read the other parts of the series click here. 

Rumors over the whereabouts and health of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un have been mounting over the past weeks following his absence from a ceremony marking the birth of his grandfather Kim Il-sung, the country’s founding leader. The ceremony was held on April 15 at the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun in Pyongyang.

It remains uncertain as to who would replace Kim. Regardless, a lot of political turmoil is likely to ensue if Kim dies or if he has died—not just inside North Korea but also in South Korea. The chaotic situation could put the political career of the South’s President Moon Jae-in at risk, as Moon has been promoting engagement policy toward North Korea as his top political agenda.

Although inter-Korean talks have seen almost no progress since the breakup of the U.S.-North Korea summit in Hanoi in February 2018, the South’s Moon government and the ruling Democratic Party of Korea have remained firm with their engagement policy while pushing ahead with joint inter-Korean economic projects.

Commemorating the second anniversary of the April 27 Panmunjom Declaration made by Moon and Kim in 2018, the South Korean Ministry of Unification has recently resumed a project to connect railway systems of the two Koreas to realize the vision of the “East Asian Railroad Community.”

The viability of such inter-Korean projects, however, will be in doubt if the North Korean leader dies, and the South’s ruling bloc will face strong criticism from the opposition bloc for wasting considerable time and budget for nothing.

As the government has maintained that Kim is “alive and well,” with high-profile officials repeatedly confirming the stance, some could even accuse the government of “deceiving” people to gain political popularity, if Kim dies.

Adding to concerns over the possible chaotic situation in the South is the ongoing discord in the South Korea-U.S. alliance while two allies have yet to reach an agreement over the defense cost-sharing talks for this year. While President Donald Trump insists South Korea should and could pay “more,” South Korea says it has already presented the maximum raise it could afford only to be turned by the U.S. side.

The disputes between the allies could be a security threat to the South, as there will be a higher risk of possible terrors involving North Korea's weapons of mass destruction, with deadly weapons leaked from the North to other terrorist countries or groups in a contingency after Kim’s death.

Damin Jung is a staff reporter for the Korea Times.

Image: Reuters.