As Russia’s full-scale invasion concludes its third year, Ukraine is facing ever-greater threats. It was recently reported that North Korea is sending over 10,000 soldiers to train in Russia, with 3,000 deploying, marking the first time that any foreign country directly joins the war.  

Putin’s pact with Kim Jong Un will free up Russian troops and reduce the strain on Russia’s military, whose casualties exceed 600,000 while giving North Koreans valuable combat experience.  

Last month, Iran sent the first shipment of Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, as part of a contract reportedly promising hundreds more. Russia can now use high-speed Iranian missiles to target Ukrainian supply chains and vital air defenses far behind the front lines, while reserving its longer-range missiles for targets further west, such as the attack on Poltava this September that killed at least fifty-one people and injured 271 others.  

As Russia’s allies grow bolder, Ukraine’s allies continue to bicker on how, and whether, it should be allowed to strike back. The United States prohibits Ukraine from utilizing long-range missiles, American or not, to hit legitimate military targets in Russia. The broad pattern of Western hesitation, infighting, and delays has emboldened Russia to increase its cooperation with Iran, North Korea, and China, strengthening the new axis of evil.

The first known instance of foreign military aid to Russia was in August 2022, when Iran sent forty-six unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), including the now-infamous Shahed kamikaze drones. In late 2022, Russia struck a deal with Iran to construct a plant to manufacture UAVs domestically. To date, the factory has produced over 6,000 drones, enabling grim new records: Russia launched Shahed drones in Ukraine every day last month, for a total of 1,339 attacks in September 2024 alone.  

North Korea began selling millions of artillery shells and rockets to Russia in 2022, providing crucial ammunition for the grinding war of attrition in the east of Ukraine. In late 2023, North Korea began shipping Hwasong-11 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia. To date, it has sent at least 16,500 containers of weaponry, thousands of soldiers, and dozens of military engineers to aid Russia’s war on Ukraine.   

China’s support for Russia has been more subtle but no less consequential. While Western countries levied sanctions on Russian trade after the full-scale invasion, China substantially increased trade with Russia. Growth in oil and gas exports to China has filled Russia’s coffers, enabling it to sustain its war on Ukraine.  

Chinese exports of key technologies allow Russia to circumvent sanctions targeting the production of advanced weaponry such as missiles; for example, exports of semiconductors more than doubled in 2022. Chinese companies have also exported $12 million in drones to Russia, plus drone parts, body armor, and assault rifles. Last month, it was reported that Russia established a program in China to develop a new long-range drone model.  

Collaboration of the “axis of evil” is a two-way street, which also benefits the world’s other rogue regimes. Russia reportedly paid Iran for the initial shipments of UAVs with 140 million euros and stolen American and British missile technology. Iran received another $1.7 billion for the drone factory. In exchange for ballistic missiles, Russia may even be assisting Iran with its nuclear program.  

Russia has also provided North Korea with tanks, aircraft, and technological assistance for a program that has since successfully launched the country’s first spy satellite into orbit. Russia used its veto power on the UN Security Council to nix a panel monitoring North Korea’s nuclear program.  

One would expect that the Western response to the rise of the “axis of evil” would include increasing support for Ukraine. Unfortunately, this is not the case. Since its highest levels in late 2022 and early 2023, military aid to Ukraine has declined in both monetary and material terms.  

U.S. Congress passed four aid packages for Ukraine in 2022, which included about sixty-five billion USD in military aid, a sum equivalent to nine percent of that year’s defense budget. After the package in December 2023, no more aid would be passed for nearly sixteen months. 

The number of heavy weapons committed has drastically declined since the beginning of 2023, trickling down to zero in certain months; in July-August 2024, a mere four Howitzer artillery pieces, no rocket systems, and no tanks were committed by all of Ukraine’s allies.  

After years of neglect, U.S. factories produced less than 40,000 155mm artillery shells per month. Even North Korea has sent more shells to Russia than the United States has to Ukraine, not to mention the 250,000 shells that Russia produces per month, three times as many as all of Ukraine’s allies combined.  

As Russia’s allies grow stronger and bolder, the West seems to have grown complacent. 

Since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has received increasing amounts of cash, ammunition, weaponry, and advanced technology from its allies. In return, it strengthens Iran, North Korea, and China: a new “axis of evil.” 

Western hesitation has emboldened Russia’s allies, and America’s foes, to not only engage in an unlimited arms trade but to send troops to fight on European soil for the first time in history. 

If Ukraine’s allies plan to provide just enough assistance to prevent Ukraine from falling, they might find themselves losing a much larger war. Western countries must wake up and provide all the support required for Ukraine’s victory, at a speed befitting the urgency of the situation. If they do not, autocratic regimes will continue to grow bolder, further threatening world security and international law.  

About the Authors: 

Anastassia Fedyk is an Assistant Professor of Finance at the UC Berkeley Haas School of Business and Chief Economist at the AI for Good Foundation. She received her B.A. from Princeton University and her Ph.D. from Harvard University. Her research focuses on investments in technology, especially Artificial Intelligence, and the resulting impact on industries, firms, and workers.

Emilia Marshall is a Research Fellow at Economists for Ukraine and a student at UC Berkeley. Her focus is on the intersection of economics and data science.

 Image Credit: Creative Commons and/or Shutterstock.