The Ukraine War: A New Battleground for Two Koreas: North Korea’s decision to send troops to Russia represents a significant shift in the regional and global geopolitical landscape, with consequences that extend far beyond the Ukraine conflict. While many may focus on the immediate effects in Europe, the true stakes lie in the impact on security in Northeast Asia, particularly the Korean Peninsula. 

Strategic Gains for North Korea 

In exchange for its military support, North Korea stands to gain several benefits that could reshape its economic and military capabilities. Key among these is hard currency, with reports suggesting that North Korean soldiers are being paid around $2,000 each per month. This financial boost, combined with potential economic aid from Russia in the form of food and energy, will allow Kim Jong Un to advance his domestic agenda, particularly his ambitious 10x20 rural development plan. Crucially, it enables the regime to mitigate the harsh effects of international sanctions, bolstering Kim’s domestic leadership. 

However, the most consequential gain for North Korea may come in the form of advanced Russian military technology. Access to improved intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), hypersonic weapons, nuclear submarines, and space weapons could significantly enhance Pyongyang’s military capabilities. This bolstered deterrent could embolden North Korea in its military activities against South Korea and the United States, potentially destabilizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia as a whole. 

Perhaps most alarming is the possibility that this deployment reflects a deeper commitment under the military treaty signed between Pyongyang and Moscow in June 2024. This agreement could allow North Korea to dispatch its soldiers four months after signing, while also opening the door for Russia to send troops or military equipment to the Korean Peninsula. 

Such a move would escalate tensions further, potentially drawing both U.S. and Russian forces into a direct standoff on the Korean Peninsula, with dire implications for global security. 

South Korea’s Response  

South Korea views North Korea’s involvement in Russia as a direct and escalating threat. Seoul's National Intelligence Service (NIS) has publicly disclosed details about North Korean troop deployments in Russia, highlighting the gravity of the situation and attracting global attention. Seizing this opportunity, Seoul is now pursuing enhanced military cooperation with NATO and the United States, particularly as the U.S. approaches its presidential election. There are concerns that a post-election shift in U.S. foreign policy could leave South Korea vulnerable, especially if the incoming administration seeks engagement with North Korea. 

One of the emerging strategic options for South Korea may involve direct military support for Ukraine. While the idea of sending troops or weapons to Ukraine was once unthinkable, it is becoming a viable option as Seoul looks to counterbalance the growing North Korea-Russia axis. 

Fighting North Korea in a third country may offer South Korea a way to avoid direct conflict on the peninsula, reducing the risk of catastrophic damage at home. South Korea's decision could ignite debates in Europe and the U.S. about the potential deployment of troops to Ukraine, potentially reshaping their military strategies toward Russia. Meanwhile, the long-standing debate over whether South Korea should develop its nuclear weapons is gaining momentum, driven by North Korea's advancement of nuclear technologies with Russia's support.  

High-Stakes Future for Both Koreas 

For North Korea, its involvement in the Ukraine war has become a matter of regime survival. Pyongyang is betting heavily on a Russian victory, but if Russia loses, North Korea’s vulnerability would increase significantly due to the loss of a crucial economic and military ally. 

For South Korea, the Yoon administration faces high-stakes challenges. With President Yoon Suk-yeol’s approval ratings languishing at around 22-24%, North Korea’s actions could offer an opportunity to rally conservative support. By emphasizing the growing threat posed by North Korea’s alliance with Russia, Yoon could bolster his image as a strong defender of both global and national security against Pyongyang and Moscow. 

The war in Ukraine has now drawn the Korean Peninsula into its orbit, and the implications are far-reaching. Both North and South Korea are positioning themselves within a broader great power competition that is reshaping global security dynamics. 

About the Author: 

Sangsoo Lee is an Associated Fellow at the European Center for North Korea Studies at the University of Vienna and a founder of Strategic Linkages (SL. Dr. Lee was the Deputy Director and head of the Stockholm Korea Center at the Institute for Security & Development Policy (ISDP). His areas of interest are Security and Conflict issues in Northeast Asia, with a focus on the North Korean nuclear crisis and inter-Korean relations. Dr. Lee holds a PhD in Northeast Asian Studies from Peking University and has been a Visiting Researcher at the United Nations University (UNU-CRIS) (2007) and at the London School of Economics (LSE) (2011).

Image Credit: Creative Commons.