In parallel, the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran is also largely political, contrary to what many analyses characterize as being merely sectarian, involving proxy wars across the region. It represents a ceaseless search for leadership over the Muslim world since the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979. As Lebanese journalist and political analyst Nadim Koteich notes in a recent lecture, Iran embraced Shiite doctrine in the sixteenth century as a result of a political decision, and since then, Shiism has served politics, not the other way around. He adds that sectarianism is a tool employed by regional powers to serve broader interests.

In concluding their agreement, both Iran and Saudi Arabia now appear to have prioritized the prosperity of their economies and the reduction of regional security tensions. Iran is facing an economic crisis and increasing isolation due to its nuclear program and, more recently, its evident support for Russia in the Ukrainian war. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia seems to have chosen to return to a calmer foreign policy for the sole purpose of focusing on its economic Vision 2030, free from Iranian security threats. 

However, Iran and Saudi Arabia are not the only significant foreign actors in Lebanon. Notably, France and the United States also collaboratively play essential roles in Lebanese politics, with the United States being indispensable in potentially reintegrating Lebanon into the international financial system amidst the country’s imminent economic collapse.

As Mohanad Hage Ali opines at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, Saudi Arabia is part of a five-country coordination group over Lebanon’s financial crisis, which includes the United States, France, Qatar, and Egypt. This group collectively coordinates any new policies regarding Lebanon, which potentially entails coupling “economic incentives with painful reforms.” In fact, the Lebanese parliament is currently working on a series of laws that are prerequisites for potentially obtaining $3 billion in IMF funding. Most recently, in February 2023, France hosted a summit in Paris, attended by the group, aimed at ending the political and social deadlock in Lebanon.

The US’s involvement in Lebanese affairs dates back long before the current crisis. The list of its engagements is extensive, whether through direct military intervention to protect Lebanon’s independence from regional interference in 1958, participation in multinational peacekeeping forces during the Lebanese civil war in 1982, or its role in supporting the principles of Taif Agreement which ended the Lebanese civil war in 1990. The United States also exerted considerable pressure, along with France, in 2005 for Syria to withdraw its troops from Lebanon. More recently, in October 2022, the United States successfully mediated the conclusion of a maritime border agreement between Israel and Lebanon to conduct offshore gas exploration, following a decade of contentious negotiations. 

The United States essentially welcomed the agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran but cast doubt on whether Iran would adhere to the deal, while emphasizing the resolution of the war in Yemen as a crucial test. For example, commenting on the agreement, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on March 10 that the United States welcomed the deal and any efforts that help put an end to the war in Yemen and broadly reduce tensions in the Middle East, expressing doubts that the Iranian regime would honor “their side of the deal.” Later, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken on March 15 generally expressed support for a China-brokered agreement that could help reduce tensions in the region but added it depends on whether "Iran follows through on the commitments."

Particularly on Yemen, most observers and regional/international officials, including U.S. officials, seem to assess that the success of the agreement to restore diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia will hinge on settling the Yemeni war first before moving forward with resolving other respective disputes across the region – although until recently, Iran has denied any claims that it was involved in funding or arming the Houthis. Indeed, in a clear indication of the preeminence of the Yemeni issue contingent on ending the proxy war based on the agreement, the Wall Street Journal reported on March 16, citing U.S. and Saudi officials, that Iran had agreed to halt supplying the Houthis with weapons as part of the agreement.

Thus, while both Iran and Saudi Arabia clearly retain interests in Lebanon, Yemen appears to be Saudi Arabia’s top priority at the moment, given the proxy conflict and its proximity to Saudi Arabia. Consequently, according to most commentators, reaching an agreement in Lebanon, including ending its presidential election stalemate and potentially reviving its economy provided that reforms are enacted, is contingent on resolving the Yemeni conflict. 

At this stage, though, the deal primarily constitutes a roadmap and, in the words of many, is merely a declaration of intent. While a seemingly low-profile online media outlet has published confidential security clauses, allegedly as part of the agreement, that embedded agreed-upon security imperatives for the two sides beyond the restoration of diplomatic relations, no official corroboration of such clauses has yet occurred. The clauses generally allege that both Iran and Saudi Arabia will abstain from engaging in any security, military, or media activity that destabilizes either state.

The agreement is still in its early days. Nevertheless, specifically with regard to Lebanon, as the major details of the agreement remain unknown, the Lebanese debate persists, revolving around an assessment of which party the Lebanese file would be relegated to in the agreement. According to some analysts, an Iranian delegation may soon visit Lebanon to discuss the development with Hezbollah, and potentially the presidential election matter. However, Kareem Pakradouni, a veteran Lebanese analyst and former president of the Lebanese Christian Kataeb Party and former minister, cautioned in an interview a few days ago that the Lebanese should wait and see which party involved in the agreement will first mobilize and visit Lebanon before concluding to which party the Lebanese file has been delegated, Saudi Arabia or Iran.

Rany Ballout is a New York-based political risk and due diligence analyst with extensive experience in the Middle East. He holds a master’s degree in International Studies from the University of Montreal in Canada and a bachelor’s degree in Linguistics from Uppsala University in Sweden.

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