The Iran Nuclear Agreement: Listen to the Voices of Experience
Donald Trump appears poised to make one of the most damaging moves yet of his presidency: to pull out of the multilateral agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), that severely restricts Iran’s nuclear program and closes all pathways to a possible Iranian nuclear weapon. Iran is adhering—as inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency have repeatedly certified—to its obligations under the agreement. Despite this record, Trump’s administration already has been violating U.S. obligations, by withholding licenses for commercial transactions permitted under the accord and by actively discouraging other countries from conducting normal commerce with Iran. Trump has been chomping at the bit to withdraw from the JCPOA altogether. He reportedly has been restrained from doing so only by the strong urging of senior subordinates who understand that such a step would be contrary to U.S. interests and to the interests of nuclear nonproliferation.
With Trump’s dismissal of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster, some of the most significant restraints on Trump’s impulses are gone. The replacements, Mike Pompeo and John Bolton, have been just as viscerally opposed to the JCPOA as Trump and can be expected to encourage, rather than restrain, his destructive impulses.
Nothing good can come out of a U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA. The very best scenario one could hope for, in which the other six parties to the agreement keep some version of it going without U.S. participation, would mean isolation of the United States rather than Iran and additional divisions and acrimony between the United States and its allies. Other scenarios, in which the JCPOA collapses—as suggested by some statements from Iranian officials that if the U.S. pulls out, so will Iran—are worse. This would mean the end of all the special restrictions that the JCPOA placed on Iran’s nuclear program. It would mean Iran could reopen shut-down facilities, enrich as much uranium as it wanted to as high a level as it wanted, and get back to where it was before the JCPOA went into effect, which was within striking distance of being able to build a nuclear weapon. And just as was the case before the negotiations that led to the JCPOA got under way, Iran’s likely response to more and more pressure from the United States would be to spin more and more enrichment centrifuges.
While all this was happening, the absence of the unprecedently intrusive international inspections that the JCPOA provided for would mean we would be put back in the dark with regard to exactly what Iran was doing with its nuclear program. The Trump administration would have a new nuclear crisis, totally of its own making, at the very time that efforts to deal with the problem of North Korea’s nuclear weapons enter a critical period.
Trump’s animus toward the JCPOA, like much of the opposition to it, is rooted in political impulses that have nothing to do with the terms of the agreement. For Trump the overriding motivation, as with much of the rest of his presidency, has been to undo whatever his predecessor did. With Bolton, there is the further inclination to oppose diplomacy generally and to look to military force as the solution to any foreign problem.
In times such as these, we should look for guidance to those whose dedication to U.S. national security interests is unquestioned, whose detachment from current political fights is sufficient for their advice to be guided by long-term concern for those interests, and whose experience gives them deep understanding of the issues and problems involved. Such people are to be found in a group of more than a hundred American national security leaders who, calling themselves a National Coalition to Prevent an Iranian Nuclear Weapon, issued today a statement supporting adherence to the JCPOA. The signatories include several dozen retired generals and admirals from the U.S. military. They include 31 former ambassadors, including five former U.S. ambassadors to Israel. They include former members of Congress, both Republican and Democrat, including former chairs of the foreign relations and armed services committees. They include former senior executive branch officials as well as those who have studied intensively from the outside the problems of relations with Iran and of nuclear proliferation. These leaders would disagree among themselves on many issues, but they agree on the wisdom of maintaining the landmark agreement that is the JCPOA.
Here is their statement:
Keep the Iran Deal — 10 Good Reasons Why
Statement of the National Coalition to Prevent an Iranian Nuclear Weapon
March 2018
President Trump should maintain the U.S. commitment to the Iran nuclear deal. Doing so will bring substantial benefits and strengthen America’s hand in dealing with North Korea, as well as Iran, and help maintain the reliability of America’s word and influence as a world leader. Ditching it would serve no national security purpose.
Maintaining Rigorous Implementation of the Agreement Enhances U.S. and Regional Security
1. Iran will be prohibited from exceeding severe limits on its nuclear program under continuing, unprecedented international monitoring, preventing it from moving toward a nuclear weapon for the duration of the agreement. If there is no follow-on agreement that maintains constraints on Iran and if Iran should move toward acquiring a nuclear weapon, nothing prevents the U.S. from taking action.
2. Direct U.S.-Iran communications will be better maintained for crisis management if the nuclear agreement remains in place. The potential for military confrontation, inadvertent accidents and consequent misjudgments in Syria and the Gulf may require the contingency for emergency contacts made possible through the Joint Commission of the nuclear agreement.
3. North Korea could not claim that the U.S. abrogates agreements without cause and would be more likely to negotiate an end to its nuclear program. Efforts to limit nuclear proliferation would be strengthened.
4. Other states in the region would have significantly reduced motivation to develop nuclear weapons if Iran’s program remains under intense scrutiny and restrictions.
The Agreement Enhances U.S. Stature and Leadership
5. U.S. relations with major European allies, who all oppose U.S. withdrawal, would be preserved for advancing U.S. national security interests beyond the nuclear deal.
6. The U.S. will build credibility and retain influence with its negotiating partners to ensure strict implementation with the agreement, be able to lead efforts to strengthen it, or garner strong support for imposing additional sanctions if necessary. Should U.S. efforts with allies fail to reach understandings on remaining in the agreement, the Western Alliance would face significant additional strain.
7. Iran will be denied the opportunity to blame the U.S. should it renew its nuclear program in response to a U.S. withdrawal. Russia and China will be denied the opportunity to claim they are true guardians of international order.
Maintaining the Agreement Provides Opportunities to Decrease Tensions in the Region
8. U.S. political and diplomatic influence would not be eroded, improving the U.S.’s ability to advance the resolution of regional conflicts. There are no military solutions to the conflicts in the Middle East. The U.S. should not cede to Russia, Iran, or others, control over political settlements in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq.
9. Iranian hardliners who claim the U.S. can never be trusted would be proven wrong and their influence weakened.
10. Russia and China would have greater difficulty moving closer to Iran politically, economically, and militarily which could lead to increased transfers of conventional weapons and a Russia-Iran strategic alliance.
Ambassador (ret.) Morton Abramowitz, Assistant Secretary of State for Intelligence and Research; Ambassador to Thailand and Turkey
Graham Allison, Assistant Secretary of Defense
Ambassador (ret.) Brooke D. Anderson, Alternate Representative for Special Political Affairs at the U.S. Mission to the United Nations; Chief of Staff and Counselor of the National Security Council
Brigadier General (ret.) Ricardo Aponte, U.S. Air Force and Director of Innovation and Experimentation, U.S. Southern Command
Vice Admiral (ret.) Donald Arthur, U.S. Navy and Surgeon General, U.S. Navy
Major General (ret.) Donna Barbisch, U.S. Army and Director, Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Defense Program Integration
Brigadier General (ret.) Roosevelt Barfield, U.S. Army and Deputy Director of Operations, U.S. Africa Command
Rear Admiral (ret.) Jamie Barnett, U.S. Navy and Deputy Commander, Navy Expeditionary Combat Command
Howard Berman, U.S. House of Representatives and Chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs
Ambassador (ret.) Nicholas Burns, Under Secretary of State and Ambassador to NATO and Greece
Jeff Bingaman, U.S. Senate
Brigadier General (ret.) Donald C. Bolduc, U.S. Army and Commanding General, Special Operations Command-Africa
David L. Boren, U.S. Senator and Governor of Oklahoma
General (ret.) Chuck Boyd, U.S. Air Force and Deputy Commander in Chief, U.S. European Command
Major General (ret.) David P. Burford, U.S. Army and Deputy Commander for Mobilization and Reserve Affairs, U.S. Special Operations Command
Brigadier General (ret.) Jeffrey B. Cashman, U.S. Air Force and Director, Manpower, Personnel and Services, Air National Guard
Brigadier General (ret.) Stephen A. Cheney, U.S. Marine Corps and Inspector General, U.S. Marine Corps
Joseph Cirincione, President of the Ploughshares Fund
Lieutenant General (ret.) James Clapper, U.S. Air Force and Director of National Intelligence
Brigadier General (ret.) Julia J. Cleckley, U.S. Army and Special Assistant to the Director of the Army National Guard
Ambassador (ret.) James F. Collins, Ambassador at Large for the New Independent States and to the Russian Federation
Major General (ret.) Peter Cooke, U.S. Army and Commanding General, 96th Regional Support Command
Thomas Countryman, Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation
Ambassador (ret.) Chester A. Crocker, Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs
Ambassador (ret.) Ryan Crocker, Ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Syria, Kuwait, and Lebanon
Ambassador (ret.) Walter Culter, Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, and Congo-Zaire
Ambassador (ret.) James B. Cunningham, Ambassador to the United Nations, Israel, and Afghanistan
John Danforth, U.S. Senate and Ambassador to the United Nations
Tom Daschle, U.S. Senate and Senate Majority Leader
Suzanne DiMaggio, Senior Fellow and Director of the Iran Initiative at New America
Ambassador (ret.) James Dobbins, U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan
David Dreier, U.S. House of Representatives and Chairman of the House Committee on Rules
Major General (ret.) Mari K. Eder, U.S. Army and Commanding General, 76th Operational Reserve Command
Robert Einhorn, Assistant Secretary for Nonproliferation and the Secretary of State’s Special Advisor for Nonproliferation and Arms Control
Admiral (ret.) William J. Fallon, U.S. Navy and Commander, U.S. Central Command
Brigadier General (ret.) Robert J. Felderman, U.S. Army and Deputy Director Plans, Policy and Strategy, U.S. Northern Command
Ambassador (ret.) Robert Gallucci, Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs and Ambassador at Large
Lieutenant General (ret.) Walter Gaskin, U.S. Marine Corps and Deputy Chairman, NATO Military Committee
Leslie Gelb, Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs and Director of Policy Planning and Arms Control at the Department of Defense
Rear Admiral (ret.) F. Stephen Glass, JAGC, U.S. Navy and Senior Judge Advocate, Naval Reserve
Ambassador (ret.) James Goodby, Ambassador to Finland and Deputy Chief of the U.S.delegation to the START talks
Vice Admiral (ret.) Kevin P. Green, U.S. Navy and Deputy Chief of Naval Operations (Plans, Policy and Operations)
Lee H. Hamilton, U.S. House of Representatives, Chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, and Vice Chair of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States
Ambassador (ret.) William C. Harrop, Ambassador to Israel and Inspector General, U.S. Department of State
Gary Hart, U.S. Senate and U.S. Special Envoy to Northern Ireland
Brigadier General (ret.) Don Harvel, U.S. Air Force and Air National Guard Advisor to the Commander of the Air Force Special Operations Command
General (ret.) Michael Hayden, U.S. Air Force and Director of the National Security Agency and Director of the Central Intelligence Agency
Stephen B. Heintz, President of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund
Ambassador (ret.) Carla A. Hills, U.S. Trade Representative
James Hoge, Former Editor of Foreign Affairs Magazine
Ambassador (ret.) Laura S. H. Holgate, U.S. Representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency and United Nations; and Special Assistant to the President for Weapons of Mass Destruction, Terrorism, and Threat Reduction of the National Security Council
Major General (ret.) Sanford E. Holman, U.S. Army and Commanding General, 200th Military Police Command
Rear Admiral (ret.) John D. Hutson, JAGC, U.S. Navy and Judge Advocate General, U.S. Navy
Brigadier General (ret.) David R. Irvine, U.S. Army and Deputy Commander, 96th Regional Support Command
Ambassador (ret.) James Jeffrey, Deputy National Security Adviser and Ambassador to Albania, Turkey, and Iraq
J. Bennett Johnston, U.S. Senate and Chairman of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources
Nancy Landon Kassebaum, U.S. Senate
Lieutenant General (ret.) Frank Kearney, U.S. Army and Deputy Director for Strategic Operational Planning, National Counterterrorism Center
Lieutenant General (ret.) Claudia Kennedy, U.S. Army and Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, U.S. Army
Ambassador (ret.) Patrick F. Kennedy, Under Secretary of State for Management
Daryl G. Kimball, Executive Director, Arms Control Association
Ambassador (ret.) Jimmy Kolker, Ambassador to Uganda and Burkina Faso
Ambassador (ret.) Daniel Kurtzer, Ambassador to Israel and Egypt
Major General (ret.) Dennis Laich, U.S. Army and Commander, 94th Regional Readiness Command
Ellen Laipson, Vice Chair of the National Intelligence Council and President Emeritus of the Stimson Center
Major General (ret.) Steven J. Lepper, U.S. Air Force and Deputy Judge Advocate General, U.S. Air Force
Carl Levin, U.S. Senate and Chairman of the Senate Committee on Armed Services
Ambassador (ret.) John Limbert, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iran
Ambassador (ret.) William H. Luers, Ambassador to Czechoslovakia and Venezuela
Richard G. Lugar, U.S. Senate and Chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations
Ambassador (ret.) Princeton Lyman, Ambassador to Nigeria and South Africa, and Assistant Secretary of State for International Organizations
Major General (ret.) Randy Manner, U.S. Army and Deputy Commanding General, 3rd U.S. Army, ARCENT, Kuwait
Ambassador (ret.) Edward Marks, Former Deputy Coordinator of the Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism at the Department of State and Ambassador to Cape Verde and Guinea-Bissau
Brigadier General (ret.) Carlos E. Martinez, U.S. Air Force and Mobilization Assistant to the Deputy Chief of Staff for Warfighting Integration
Jessica T. Mathews, Director of the Office of Global Issues of the National Security Council
Lieutenant General (ret.) John W. Morgan, III, U.S. Army and Commander, Allied Land Force Command-Heidelberg (NATO)
Ambassador (ret.) Richard W. Murphy, Ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs
Vali Nasr, U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan and Dean of Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Richard Nephew, Deputy Coordinator for Sanctions Policy at the Department of State and Director for Iran of the National Security Council
Ambassador (ret.) Thomas Niles, Ambassador to the European Union, Greece, and Canada
Sam Nunn, U.S. Senate and Chairman of the Senate Committee on Armed Services
Joseph Nye, Assistant Secretary of Defense and Chairman of the National Intelligence Council
Paul O’Neill, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury
Rear Admiral (ret.) David R. Oliver, Jr., U.S. Navy and Principal Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics
Ambassador (ret.) Rick Olsen, U.S. Special Representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan
Admiral (ret.) Eric Olson, U.S. Navy and Commander of Special Operations Forces
William Perry, U.S. Secretary of Defense
Ambassador (ret.) Thomas Pickering, Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs and Ambassador to Israel, Russia, India, El Salvador, Nigeria, Jordan, and the United Nations
Paul R. Pillar, National Intelligence Officer for the Near East and South Asia
Ambassador (ret.) Nicholas Platt, Ambassador to Pakistan, the Philippines, and Zambia
Major General (ret.) Gale S. Pollock, CRNA, FACHE, FAAN, U.S. Army and Acting Surgeon General, Army Medical Command
Don Riegle, U.S. Senate and Chairman of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs
Chuck Robb, U.S. Senate and Governor of Virginia
Rear Admiral (ret.) Harold Robinson, U.S. Navy and Deputy Chief of Chaplains
Brigadier General (ret.) Ronald F. Rokosz, U.S. Army and Deputy, Operations Directorate, the Army Staff
Ambassador (ret.) J. Stapleton Roy, Assistant Secretary of State for Intelligence and Research and Ambassador to China, Indonesia, and Singapore
Brigadier General (ret.) John M. Schuster, U.S. Army and Deputy Commanding General, 88th Regional Support Command
General (ret.) Brent Scowcroft, U.S. Air Force and U.S. National Security Advisor
Rear Admiral (ret.) Joe Sestak, U.S. Navy and Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Warfare Requirements and Programs
Gary Sick, Director for Iran and the Persian Gulf of the National Security Council
Jim Slattery, U.S. House of Representatives
Brigadier General (ret.) Paul G. Smith, U.S. Army and Commander, Massachusetts Army National Guard
Rear Admiral (ret.) Michael Smith, U.S. Navy and President, American College of National Security Leaders
Ambassador (ret.) Craig Stapleton, Ambassador to France and the Czech Republic
Mark Udall, U.S. Senate
Ambassador (ret.) Nicholas A. Veliotes, Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs and Ambassador to Egypt and Jordan
Ambassador (ret.) Edward S. Walker, Jr., Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs and Ambassador to Israel, Egypt, and the UAE
James Walsh, Research Associate at MIT’s Security Studies Program
Brigadier General (ret.) Marianne Watson, U.S. Army and Director of Manpower and Personnel, National Guard Bureau
Colonel (ret.) Lawrence Wilkerson, U.S. Army and Chief of Staff to the Secretary of State
Lieutenant General (ret.) Willie Williams, U.S. Marine Corps and Director Marine Corps Staff
General (ret.) Johnnie Wilson, U.S. Army and Commanding General, U.S. Army Materiel Command
Timothy E. Wirth, U.S. Senate
Ambassador (ret.) Frank Wisner, Ambassador to India, Egypt, the Philippines, and Zambia; and Under Secretary of State for International Security Affairs
Major General (ret.) Margaret C. Wilmoth, PhD, MSS, RN, FAAN, U.S. Army and Deputy Surgeon General for Mobilization and Army Reserve Affairs
Brigadier General (ret.) Daniel P. Woodward, U.S. Air Force and Director, Air Force Regional Affairs
Major General (ret.) Margaret Woodward, U.S. Air Force and Commander, 17th Air Force
Brigadier General (ret.) Stephen N. Xenakis, M.D., U.S. Army and Commanding General, Dwight David Eisenhower Army Medical Center
* The signers of this statement were either former senior officials of the U.S. government or prominent national security leaders who have not held senior government positions. The positions listed after the names of the former government officials are senior posts held while in office. The positions listed after the names of those who were not from the government are listed with their current position.
Image: U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry speaks during a Reuters Newsmaker event on the nuclear agreement with Iran, in New York August 11, 2015. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid