At the moment, barely two weeks out from the 2024 election, former President Donald Trump has momentum over Vice President Kamala Harris. According to five new polls, Trump is the present favorite to win. Can Trump hold on, and become just the second person in US history to win two non-consecutive presidential elections?

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris: The Latest...

The numbers favor Trump, but the numbers aren’t always a fair prediction – especially when Trump is involved.

I remember checking FiveThirtyEight regularly in the weeks leading up to the 2016 election. Hillary Clinton was the run-away favorite. Even on the morning of the 2016 election, Clinton had something like an 80-percent chance of winning. That didn’t happen, though, obviously.

And regardless, numbers change. Harris had an edge just a few weeks ago. Trump had an edge back when Biden was still in the race. Things happen. James Comey-style disclosures. Pandemics of upper respiratory infections. Candidate withdrawals. Granted, two weeks isn’t much more time for things to happen, but the point is, nothing is static.

Everything is in flux. And remember, gauging support for Trump is notoriously difficult. Why? Because Trump is so polarizing that some Trump supporters refuse to support Trump openly. Even when a stranger comes polling, some people say they’re voting against Trump – and then proceed to cast their ballot for Trump.

Regardless, let’s examine some of the latest numbers to gauge the national mood just two weeks before Election Day 2024.

Crunching the Numbers

“Donald Trump is considered the favorite to win the 2024 election by five separate forecasters with just over two weeks to go in the campaign,” Newsweek reported. “Decision Desk HQ/The Hill and 538 both recently said Trump is the favorite to win the election over Kamala Harris for the first time this cycle. Trump is also considered the front-runner by pollster Nate Silver.”

Yet, each polling entity found that Trump held the lead, and all cautioned against concluding that Trump had a glide path to victory. Instead, the race should still be considered a toss-up. “Neither Trump or Harris have a clear lead in any of the seven mains wing states which could determine who wins the election overall,” Newsweek reported. “The two are essentially tied in Pennsylvania in all five forecast models.”

Pennsylvania will be crucial. Each candidate is eyeing the Keystone State as vital to their respective victories. While the outcome in most of the country is highly predictable. Pennsylvania is one of the few states that could go either way – and could help decide the election. Harris is hoping she can pull Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Trump is hoping he can pull Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina.

Notably, Trump went viral yesterday for his McDonald’s visit in Bucks County, PA. Trump spent a few minutes making fries and handing out orders to “customers” at the drive-thru window. The event was highly staged, of course – and highly effective – demonstrating that the former president still has a gimmicky flair that people seem to love, and which could help him secure the win over Harris, who plainly lacks a similar gimmicky flair.

About the Author: Harrison Kass 

Harrison Kass is a defense and national security writer with over 1,000 total pieces on issues involving global affairs. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.

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