Summary: The upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election is shaping up to be tightly contested between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Amidst economic struggles and concerns over border security and global conflict, the polls show a narrowing gap, with Trump gaining a lead in key swing states except Michigan.

-Trump, despite being embroiled in multiple investigations, may benefit from strategic VP picks like Senator Marco Rubio, which could attract Hispanic voters and unify the Republican base. Biden, on the other hand, faces the challenge of replicating his 2020 victory under very different circumstances.

-The election is likely to hinge on a few critical states and will be influenced by voter perceptions of ongoing controversies.

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden: What the Polls are Saying

The polls are tightening between President Joe Biden and former President Donald J. Trump. That’s because most Americans, despite what the US government insists, are struggling economically. 

Most Americans—including large numbers of Hispanic-Americans—are concerned about the border crisis at America’s southwestern border with Mexico that has erupted under Joe Biden’s watch. 

Lastly, with wars and rumors of wars propounding, many are rightly concerned that the Biden Administration is about to blunder into a nuclear third world war. 

Of course, Trump is not without his own problems. 

He is a master of controversy. 

Currently, the forty-fifth president finds himself under multiple criminal and civil investigations, ranging from claims that he intentionally mishandled classified documents from his time as the forty-fifth president. 

There are allegations that he attempted to negatively influence the results of the 2020 presidential election in Georgia, all the way to accusations that Trump paid hush money to a possible mistress in 2016—and then attempted to mislead the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) about the nature of those payments (Trump used funds from his real estate business and claimed that they were business expenses).

Both Biden and Trump are eerily similar. They are both old and have high negative ratings among voters. Yet, they are the nominees for their respective parties going into the 2024 presidential election. Given the economic doldrums most Americans find themselves in, the immigration crisis tearing the country apart, and fears of a major world war, it should be a slam dunk for Biden’s challenger. 

Unfortunately for the Republican Party, though, Trump’s negatives (some real and many the result of mainstream media narrative shaping) means that 2024 will not likely be a landslide as was Ronald Reagan’s upset, landslide victory over Democratic Party President Jimmy Carter in 1980.

The 2024 Election Will Be Decided at the Margins

The 2024 election will be a squeaker. It’ll likely be decided at the margins. Most votes will be decided in August, when early voting begins, and whatever controversies scandalizing the media at that time will be far more impactful on those early voters than anything else. 

For those voters who will choose to go to the polls on election day in November, whatever scandals are being reported in the media the two weeks before voting occurs will likely be the primary influencer for many voters at that time. 

Women will play a key role in shaping the outcome of the 2024 election. The most important metric for this election will be those seven key swing states.

What’s more, the 2024 election will likely be determined by a handful of states. And Biden is currently trailing Trump by six points in those key swing states—save for Michigan. The other six critical swing states are Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. This places Trump with a 49 over Biden’s 43 percent in these states, according to a recent Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll. 

If these numbers hold (and given how bad things are perceived to be going in the United States today they likely will remain this way) Trump’s chances of replicating a 2016-style upset victory over Biden are great. Biden and the Democrats are hoping that 2024 will be just like 2020. 

No matter how hard they try to replicate the unique conditions that allowed for Biden to become president in 2020 this election year, Biden’s chances are very low for being reelected in 2024.

Donald Trump - Marco Rubio ’24? 

Further, Trump’s selection of his vice-president will be important.

There are currently a handful of names being bandied about as possible selections. I would argue the top selection is Senator Marco Rubio of Florida. Another senator, the up-and-coming J.D. Vance of Ohio has also been put forward as a potential VP nominee. Other names, like South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem or Representative Elise Stefanik of New York are possibilities. 

The most interesting one, in this author’s honest opinion, is Tulsi Gabbard. Although, the fact that Gabbard was a Democrat until a few years ago—a so-called “Bernie Bro,” to boot—means that her chances are low for becoming Trump’s pick. 

Still, she’d play well with women (a group Trump desperately needs but cannot seem to win in large numbers) and, as a former Democrat, the chances that Gabbard would be a serious contender for the GOP presidential nomination in 2028 are low (meaning that she’d not be undercutting Trump to protect her image and agenda for 2028. She’d be all-in on Trump’s final term in office).

It's looking more like Rubio will be the VP nominee. 

While this may upset some of those “MAGA” voters who believe Rubio to be a neoconservative, the fact is his presence would help Trump in two significant ways: Rubio would bring a chunk of Hispanic voters over to Trump and, precisely because Rubio is more affiliated with the neoconservative wing of the GOP—the part of the GOP that is highly connected to the government and has traditionally been opposed to Trump as president—he could unite the GOP behind Trump as much as George H.W. Bush’s nomination as Reagan’s VP united the divided Republicans in 1980.

Trump is Again the Outsider Fighting for the Little Guy

All this will push Trump over the finish line. Trump’s candidacy is benefiting from the fact that Trump is not the incumbent as he was in 2020. Thus, Trump can again play the role he is best suited for: the outsider. 

There are enough voters fed up with the current Biden Administration in key swing states that these voters will propel Trump into reelection, as much as the voters of the fabled “blue wall” left Hillary Clinton at the penultimate moment to vote for Trump. 

About the Author

Brandon J. Weichert, a National Interest national security analyst, is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, the Asia Times, and The-Pipeline. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is due October 22 from Encounter Books. Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.