Standing in an apron, leaning out of a McDonald’s drive-thru window, and waving defiantly at the “Fake News” media that was feverishly snapping pictures of the moment—all as large numbers of supporters surrounded the McDonald’s in Pennsylvania where Republican presidential nominee Donald J. Trump was “working” for the day—it was obvious that Trump was rewriting the rules of the 2024 presidential campaign. 

With a little more than two weeks before Election Day, as countless states opened their polling stations for Early Voting, these are the moments that will likely determine the outcome of this contentious presidential race. 

And Trump, whether one loves him or hates him, is not backing down. 

What’s more, the polls reflect an astonishing change of fortunes for the forty-fifth president (who hopes to become the country’s forty-seventh president of the United States). 

Just when everyone had written off the Trump Campaign after the Democratic Party had performed the great bait-and-switch of electing President Joe Biden in the 2024 Democratic Party Primary only to remove him and replace him with his running-mate, Vice-President Kamala Harris, Trump appears to have changed the narrative completely.

Indeed, Trump’s favorability ratings are the highest they’ve ever been (while Kamala’s continues nosediving). 

A Reversal of Fortunes for Donald Trump?

This is not the time for any candidate’s favorability ratings to decline—especially a candidate like Kamala Harris, whom the media is relentlessly supporting and billing as a “historic” candidate. 

The momentum is clearly in Trump’s favor as Kamala enters the final two weeks of this campaign in decline. Sure, it might not matter. People are set in their ways, after all. There’s the added scenario that most campaign experts believe is the likeliest outcome, where a few hundred thousand voters spread across a handful of swing states determine the election.

Talk about a squeaker. 

Then again, given that most Americans polled believe that the country is on the wrong track, with prices on most consumer goods remaining at 20-year highs (despite the claims from the Kamala Harris and Joe Biden administration that the economy has never done better), one should be surprised that Trump surprises everyone not just by winning, but by winning bigly. Even if this is not the case, the fact remains that Trump has significant momentum going into the final days of this election.

According to Niall Strange over at The Hill, “Polls have been edging in Trump’s direction since Vice President Harris her two high points—around the Democratic National Convention in late August and following her first and only debate with Trump on Sept. 10.” 

Trump is leading Harris—albeit slightly—in six of the seven key battleground states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin). Even in President Biden’s home state of Pennsylvania, which accounts for a whopping 19 electoral votes, Trump appears poised to sweep that state away from the Democrats this November. 

The only swing state where Trump is losing is Nevada. Those Nevada polls showing Harris has a lead are all well within the margin of error. This is giving Democratic Party strategists a degree of dyspepsia because Trump historically underperforms in polls. Therefore, as unlikely as it might seem, Trump’s lead could be even bigger than it appears to be. 

Understanding Trumpmentum 

Regardless of what the reality is, Trump has real momentum. That’s why even Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) was so chummy with his archrival (and fellow New Yorker), Donald Trump, at the prestigious Al Smith Dinner last week. Savvier political operatives understand that Kamala Harris is utterly hemorrhaging at the worst possible moment. 

She might still win because of the single-issue voter, notably women who disagree with Trump’s stance on abortion (but honestly, given how Trump has flip-flopped on the matter, it’s hard to tell just what Trump believes about abortion or what he’d do as president about the issue). Anyway, Trumpmentum is real. It is going to define the election. Further, Trumpmentum might edge out Harris at the eleventh hour—which is when it counts most.

Author Experience and Expertise: Brandon J. Weichert

Brandon J. Weichert, a National Interest national security analyst, is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, the Asia Times, and The-Pipeline. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is due October 22 from Encounter Books. Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

All images on the page come from Shutterstock or Creative Commons. 

From the Vault

Russia Freaked Out: Why the U.S. Navy 'Unretired' the Iowa-Class Battleships

Battleship vs. Battlecruiser: Iowa-Class vs. Russia's Kirov-Class (Who Wins?)