Summary and Key Points: Republican Congresswoman Lauren Boebert is poised to secure a third term by running in Colorado's 4th Congressional District, a more Republican-leaning area than her previous district. With strong polling numbers and significant name recognition, Boebert is expected to win both the GOP primary and the general election, despite past controversies.

-Her decision to switch districts and not participate in a special election for her current seat appears to be a strategic move to ensure her continued presence in Congress.

-The 4th district has a solid Republican history, making Boebert's potential victory highly likely.

Lauren Boebert's Strategic District Switch Poised for Success

Republican Congresswoman Lauren Boebert could have been fighting for her political career this fall – instead, she is expected to cruise to an easy win in Colorado's 4th Congressional District. She will almost certainly win the GOP primary, where she is currently polling with 40 percent support among voters in a six-way primary race. None of her rivals are close to seeing double-digit support in what is considered the most Republican district in the Centennial State.

The Republican nominee for the district is also essentially a lock in November's general election, with national Democratic groups all but ignoring the race – even as three Democrats are running for the nomination. However, she will still have to appeal to voters who may know her name but likely didn't send her to Congress before.

Boebert "abandoned her seat in Colorado's 3rd district" in January "to run in a more red-leaning area," as Newsweek reported. 

The move may pay off and send her back to Congress for a third term. In the 3rd district, she would have faced a rematch against Democrat Adam Frisch, who she only narrowly defeated in the 2022 midterms. Frisch has steadily gained support and is now favored to win that seat.

Running But Not Running

Also notable about Boebert's move to the 4th district is that she opted not to take part in the special election that was triggered by Republican Rep. Ken Buck's sudden resignation earlier this year. As she would have been required to leave her current seat, she opted not to enter the special election. 

Initially, her move to the more favorable district seemed like a gamble that might not pay off. She placed dead last in a January straw poll but has surged ahead due to her strong name recognition, while she was endorsed by former President Donald Trump, the presumptive GOP 2024 nominee.

Now it seems she isn't on track just to stay in Congress, and she may never need to think about another job. As ABC News/538's Kaleigh Rogers suggested last month, "After a terrible year, she's one win away from a House seat for life."

If Boebert can win the primary, she'll return to Congress, and as Rogers added, "she'll be virtually guaranteed a seat in Congress as long as she wants it."

Colorado's 4th district maintains a Cook Partisan Voting Index rating of R+13, and no Democrat has received more than 40 percent of the vote there since 2010. In fact, apart from 2008 – when the GOP lost 21 seats – the district has been solidly Republican since the early 1970s.

In other words, it is now Boebert's race to lose this year. 

Yet, it is worth remembering that she does remain a controversial figure, and she will have to do more than make headlines for bad behavior like she did earlier this year. If she can actually do her job and not garner so much bad attention, she really could have the seat for life. But there is a risk she could still end up like former Rep. Marilyn Musgrave, who represented the district for three terms – only to become the Republican who lost the seat in 2008.

Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu 

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: [email protected].

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