In the current era of geopolitical rivalries, Turkey, a well-established regional power, can be characterized as a “swing state,” as a recent Foreign Affairs article put it.  Although a NATO “ally,” it squarely belongs, ideologically, to neither the West nor the Beijing-Moscow-Teheran axis. Like many other regional and middle powers, Ankara is hedging its bets, pursuing “economic, diplomatic, military, and technological ties with members of both orders.” 

However, Turkey has its own agenda, which does not include subordination to either Russia or China. It is, therefore, a Western interest to encourage Turkey’s emergence as a partial counterweight to this axis. Part and parcel of such policy would be to support and nurture the growing alignment of the Turkic world and tie this group of states, strategically located east and west of the Caspian Sea, closer to the European security architecture. To this effect, Western powers should also increase their support for the burgeoning regional cooperation in Central Asia. This would increase their collective weight and reduce their vulnerability to manipulation from revisionist powers. 

Johan Engvall, PhD, works at the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies (SCEEUS), based at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs. His expertise is on domestic and foreign policy issues in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. His publications have appeared in several academic and policy journals, including Governance, Post-Soviet Affairs, Journal of Democracy, Foreign Policy, and The SAIS Review of International Affairs. Follow him on X: @ujengvall.

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