From advanced microchips to the green energy transition, critical minerals such as lithium, copper, and rare earth elements (REE) have become crucial inputs to the evolution of the global economy and modern life as we know it. They have also become the source of intense competition between the United States and China, both of which view ensuring access to such critical minerals as central to their pursuit of technological—and, in turn, geopolitical—influence. One country that has emerged as a pivotal element of this competition is Kazakhstan, whose wealth of critical minerals and foreign policy balance between East and West could serve as key indicators for how this technological tussle between Beijing and Washington is likely to play out. 

Kazakhstan is no stranger to geopolitical competition and maneuvering between large powers. Historically aligned with Russia, Kazakhstan only gained independence from the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. Major deposits of oil, natural gas, and uranium within Kazakhstan attracted attention from the West, with the United States and European companies investing billions in the country to bring its energy supplies out from the Russian orbit and onto global markets. This enabled Kazakhstan to become a leading economic player in Central Asia and build ties with the West while also retaining a strong working relationship with Moscow. 

The economic emergence of China brought a new player into the mix, with Beijing showing interest in Kazakhstan’s vast natural resources to fuel its energy-hungry economy. The country became a vital link to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, with Chinese President Xi Jinping formally announcing the global infrastructure and trade strategy during a visit to Kazakhstan’s capital of Astana in 2013. China invested heavily in road, rail, and pipeline development in Kazakhstan as both a resource destination and transit corridor for trade to Europe and beyond.  

The country’s geographic location in the middle of the vast Eurasian supercontinent and its economic ties with major regional and global players has been reflected in Kazakhstan’s “multi-vectoral” foreign policy, which aims for a balance among eastern and western power centers. Kazakhstan is simultaneously a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which includes Russia and China, and a prominent member of the C5+1 initiative between the United States and all five Central Asian states (as well as similar initiatives with the EU, Japan, and other entities). The country also serves as a critical node of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), which seeks to enhance trade connectivity between Europe and Asia.

The global geopolitical context has only strengthened Kazakhstan’s importance as a swing player when it comes to resources and trade. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 turbocharged European efforts to reduce their dependence on Russian energy. The Caspian region on Europe’s eastern periphery will be a key source of diversification. Kazakhstan has plugged its oil exports into Europe-bound pipelines, while the TITR has attracted significant interest from both the United States and EU as a means to bypass reliance on Russia as an energy provider and Eurasian transit hub in its own right. 

In the meantime, the disruptive impacts of climate change and the need for critical minerals to power the global energy transition to renewable forms of energy have heightened interest in Kazakhstan from a whole host of players. Building on the C5+1 diplomatic platform initiated back in 2015, the United States hosted the first-ever heads-of-state summit between President Joe Biden and all five Central Asian leaders on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly last year. During that summit, a critical minerals dialogue was launched and followed up on at the working level, with Kazakhstan serving as a vital link. The country has also signed multi-billion dollar agreements with the EU and UK on critical minerals cooperation. 

However, China still remains a major player in Kazakhstan when it comes to critical minerals investment and trade, which is in keeping with Beijing’s dominant role within the global supply chain of such minerals. This is of substantial concern for Washington, given the importance that critical minerals play in not only the green energy transition but also semiconductors and other technological uses. Beijing’s willingness to leverage this supply chain for political purposes, such as a temporary embargo of REE exports to Japan in 2010 and its recent export controls of gallium and germanium last year, has only emphasized the need for the United States and its allies to diversify their supply of critical minerals to more friendly nations. 

This brings us back to the unique and potentially pivotal role played by Kazakhstan. While the country cannot be neatly grouped into the Western or pro-Western bloc of allies for the United States, such as EU nations, Australia, Japan, and South Korea, the foreign policy orientation of Kazakhstan has proven to be pragmatic and willing to work with the West, even as it continues to engage with countries like China and Russia across the economic, diplomatic, and security spheres. For example, Astana recently hosted an SCO summit that promoted energy and security cooperation among its members, while the country has simultaneously been complying with Western sanctions targeting Russia even as it avoids passing sanctions of its own. 

Taking all of this into account, the United States would be well served to acknowledge Kazakhstan’s multi-vector foreign policy and work within it rather than against it. Kazakhstan has increasingly taken on the role of a middle power, leveraging its strategic position to balance relationships with major global players. Given its geographic position, Kazakhstan is unlikely to abandon or substantially weaken its relationship with China, Russia, or other non-Western players. However, the Kazakh government—particularly since the election of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in 2019—has proven to be highly responsive to measures that facilitate economic development and regional connectivity while also positioning the country as an important player in the global energy transition. 

Thus, it would be more effective for the United States to emphasize constructive carrots with Kazakhstan, such as investment and technological cooperation, as opposed to counter-productive sticks like sanctions and the maintenance of the Jackson-Vanik amendment. This Cold War-era holdover has restricted economic, trade, and political ties. The United States and its Western partners can also support Kazakhstan’s commitment to a balanced foreign policy while building upon their own diplomatic visits, dialogues, and summits at both the high-level and working-level in support of greater economic cooperation. They can also buttress Astana’s own diplomatic efforts to mediate and combat security instability throughout the region. 

If this approach is followed, Kazakhstan could play a highly influential role in not only helping the United States facilitate the global energy transition—which includes enhancing energy security for Europe while also ensuring a stable supply chain for critical minerals—but also in enhancing Washington’s position in its broader geopolitical competition with Beijing. As this competition between the United States and China heats up, whichever country is better able to maneuver the nuances of Kazakhstan’s foreign policy balance could unlock access to critical resources, transcontinental trade, and all of the strategic benefits that such access would entail. 

Eugene Chausovsky is a Senior Director at the New Lines Institute. Chausovsky previously served as a Senior Eurasia Analyst at the geopolitical intelligence firm Stratfor for more than ten years. His analytical work has focused on political, economic, and security issues pertaining to Russia, Eurasia, and China, as well as global connectivity issues related to energy and climate change.

Image: Shutterstock.com.