Summary and Key Points: Algeria is reportedly set to acquire Russia's Su-57 "Felon" fifth-generation fighter jets, a move that could significantly alter the balance of power in North Africa.

-As Algeria makes room in its air fleet by transferring its aging MiG-29s to Sudan, neighboring countries like Morocco and Tunisia are growing concerned about a potential regional arms race. Critics of the Su-57 have often dismissed the aircraft for not being deployed in Ukraine, but Algeria's interest signals a growing demand for Russia’s advanced military technology.

-The purchase highlights Russia’s strategic efforts to expand influence across Africa through defense and diplomatic channels.

Algeria’s Potential Su-57 Purchase from Russia Could Shift North African Power Balance

Critics mock the Sukhoi Design Bureau’s fifth-generation warplane, the Su-57 “Felon,” for not being as good as U.S. fifth-generation warplanes. Sure, no aircraft in service today matches the F-22 Raptor. But the Su-57 Felon, which is likely more akin to the F-35 Lightning II, is a mighty warbird. 

Detractors of this platform insist that this is not the case because, as Russia’s premier fifth-generation warplane, they expect to see it filling the unfriendly skies above Ukraine. But the Ukraine War is an attritional war that focuses more on might and less on technological wizardry.

In this unstable environment, Russia does not need to risk its small force of advanced and expensive Su-57s. Instead, they can throw cheaper, easier-to-mass-produce systems such as the Su-34 into the fray.

There has been no real evidence to suggest that the Su-57 is deserving of the scorn that has been heaped upon it. But Russia’s reluctance to field the system leaves many would-be global purchasers with cold feet. 

Over time, however, this reluctance is waning. 

One country, Algeria, is poised to purchase a tranche of Su-57s from Russia.

Destabilizing North Africa with Su-57

Such a move could upend the balance of power in the region. Algeria is currently handing over their old Soviet-era MiG-29 fighters to Sudan as they make room in their fleet for a tranche of Su-57s (and up to 70 Su-30 jets), according to Peter Suciu. 

Algerian neighbors such as Morocco and Tunisia are naturally concerned about this possible purchase by Algeria. In fact, there are real concerns this will spark a regional arms race. 

The location of this sale is especially interesting. After all, Russia has been obsessive in its bid to become the dominant great power throughout the rising African continent. 

Whether it be Wagner Group mercenaries backstopping authoritarian regimes that control abundant natural resources, or nations such as Algeria that seek advanced weapons – transactions Moscow can leverage in a search for closer ties – it is obvious that the race for Africa is heating up.

The days of America running circles around rival countries, like Russia, are over. Washington needs to get ready to face a highly contested multipolar world in which its power is in relative decline.

Author Experience and Expertise: Brandon J. Weichert

Brandon J. Weichert, a National Interest national security analyst, is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, the Asia Times, and The-Pipeline. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is due October 22 from Encounter Books. Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

All images are Creative Commons or Shutterstock. 

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