The U.S.-China relationship is now characterized mainly by competition and confrontation, overshadowing the potential for cooperation and collaboration. While a direct conflict between a rising power and an established hegemon—Graham Allison’s “Thucydides Trap”—may be unlikely, a period of great power rivalry, especially in the tech domain, will persist and perhaps escalate. Fears of one’s adversary gaining the upper hand encourage the use of chokepoint strategies. The outcome of this great power tech war hinges on who holds more “chips,” the costs involved, and the impacted parties.

How the issues surrounding gallium and germanium are handled could very well dictate the future balance of technological power.

Dr. Marina Yue Zhang is an associate professor at the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney. Marina’s research interests cover China’s innovation policy and practice, emerging technologies, and network effects in digital transformation. She is the author of three books, including Demystifying China’s Innovation Machine: Chaotic Order, co-authored with Mark Dodgson and David Gann (Oxford University Press, 2022).