As an island vulnerable to frequent blackouts, Puerto Rico deserves a resilient and reliable power grid. Building such a grid starts with guaranteeing energy security for critical infrastructure, such as hospitals and storm shelters. Natural gas (NG) can help alleviate the island’s power grid challenges by providing backup redundancy, fuel diversification, and the other critical services (so-called ancillary services) that are required to maintain a reliable grid. If implemented successfully, NG distribution by trucks or storm-resilient pipeline networks would serve as a bridge to a stable grid and set the stage for the 100 percent renewable goal described in the Department of Energy’s PR100 report.

Puerto Rico needs additional power generation today to enable critical planned unit maintenance before another major storm devastates the island or grid failures cause irreparable harm to the local economy. Distributed NG generation is well-positioned to provide this rapid and effective support to both critical infrastructure and the grid at large through both backup and ancillary services. While large NG generators require extensive and expensive bidding and design processes, smaller generators are much easier to acquire and faster to install. They can also be combined to perform similar services at scale. NG generators are also better suited than diesel to operate when air quality is a concern.

Additionally, if done strategically, new NG generation is well suited to address Puerto Rico's net-zero energy goals. Onsite renewables and batteries can supplement energy generation. At the same time, a transition plan from NG to hydrogen, biogas, or green methanol would ensure a clear pathway to continue leveraging all generation assets in a net-zero future.

To maximize the utility of NG, the Puerto Rican government should task the Puerto Rico Energy Bureau (PREB) with establishing and overseeing the construction of a natural gas distribution network as a bridge to a resilient and reliable energy future. This strategy should lay out a plan for distributing NG from liquified natural gas (LNG) terminals to critical nodes, starting with critical infrastructure and expanding out to other regions that chronically experience generation shortages. There are examples of critical infrastructure—such as hospitals and other energy-sensitive industries—that are installing NG distribution and generation. PREB should also establish contracts for the NG generators to provide ancillary services when required by the power grid. Also, PREB should assess and plan for the necessary transition from NG to a carbon-neutral gas alternative.

Until such a transition plan is implemented, using the two existing LNG terminals in Puerto Rico will provide immediate benefits, as these terminals already have the capacity to provide cleaner fuel than the current fleet of emergency diesel generators. On the mainland United States, many utilities include rapidly deployable generation resources as an integral part of their 2050 net zero transition plans—for example, Xcel in Minnesota and Florida’s Duke Energy.

While PR100’s net zero by 2050 remains a worthy goal, and renewable power initiatives should continue, Puerto Rico can and must address more immediate needs. With NG, it can do that while also better positioning itself for the future. Natural gas will enable the island to increase its resilience, enable necessary grid repairs, and pave the way for a net zero-emission future.

Ismael Arciniegas Rueda is a senior economist at the RAND Corporation.

Andrew Star is an engineer at RAND. 

Frank Andujar Lugo is a technical analyst at RAND. 

Robert Jolly is a SkillBridge Research Fellow at RAND.

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