Third, no single location is more critical to the defense of Japan than Okinawa, which hosts approximately 70 percent of the nearly 50,000 American soldiers in Japan. Unfortunately, the political basis for continued U.S. operations out of Okinawa has grown increasingly challenging over the past several years. While many observers blame this development largely on political opportunism and naïveté on the part of former Japanese Prime Minister Hatoyama Yukio, combined with a measure of politicking among local leaders on Okinawa, it is nonetheless also true that Okinawans have long borne a disproportionate burden for the defense of Japan and have suffered substantial inconveniences and indignities in the course of this. Regrettably, a small number of American service members and support personnel have committed appalling criminal acts ranging from seriously injuring local Okinawans in drunk driving accidents to gang rape and even murder.

The actions of a small number of individuals out of the hundreds of thousands who have served honorably in Okinawa over the decades has severely complicated efforts to relocate Marine Corps Air Station Futenma from the heart of the crowded Ginowan district to Camp Schwab in Henoko. U.S. defense leaders and their Japanese counterparts should not abandon the relocation effort, which is currently frozen pending a court ruling that should clear the way for it to proceed. But neither should they spare any effort to address the serious concerns about noise, air, and ground pollution as well as off-base crime that anger Okinawans. Local U.S. military leaders should continue explaining how the replacement of the CH-46 Seaknight with the newer and operationally safer MV-22 Osprey reduces the risk of an accident while improving the U.S. Marines’ abilities to assist in responding to emergencies such as the April earthquake in Kumamoto. Local commanders from the 3rd Marine Expeditionary Force as well as U.S. Air Force’s 18th Wing stationed at Kadena Air Base have critical roles to play in reaching out, listening to, and addressing the reasonable concerns of Okinawans affected by U.S. military operations in defense of Japan, signaling to them that the U.S. respects them and is open to minimizing the negative impact of the U.S. presence on local communities as far as possible.  

Finally, the United States and Japan have been thinking about how to deter and, if necessary, fight a technologically-advanced, high-end adversary such as China. As the Chinese People’s Liberation Army builds up an arsenal of advanced cruise and ballistic missiles, submarines, surface vessels, fighter-bombers, mines, anti-satellite weapons, refueling aircraft, and cyber weapons plus the ability to fight across the electro-magnetic spectrum, it is important for the United States and its allies to come up with plans for how to ensure that they are pacing this emerging military challenge. For the United States, innovations such as the Air-Sea Battle Concept, which was subsequently revised and incorporated into the broader concept of how to achieve Joint Access and Maneuver in the Global Commons, have been important early steps in shifting towards more serious thinking about how to meet the challenges of a high-end adversary with advanced capabilities. Japan has also begun to think about “going anti-access at sea”, effectively building its own network of shore-based radar and anti-ship cruise missile capabilities that might turn the cost equation of power projection back against China. Additionally, the U.S. Department of Defense has announced plans to pursue a “third off-set strategy” where the United States and its allies will work together to out-innovate potential system challengers and maintain the capacity to defend common interests through superior military technology and greater sharing of relevant research and development efforts.  These important developments need to continue and deepen.    

Steady as She Goes

So long as the United States and Japan stick together, they should have sufficient combined strength to meet the challenges of deterring or, if necessary, defeating the threats they confront. America’s allies are doing their part to help meet these challenges, as Japan has shown by making tremendous strides in improving its ability to make proactive contributions to the alliance and to the peace of the Asia-Pacific region in recent years. However, if inaccurate caricatures of feckless, free-riding allies drive the U.S. political debate in a direction that suggests that Washington will abandon its legally-binding alliance commitments, the risk of war will actually go up and America will be less safe.  The greatest threat that the United States faces stems not from democratic allies who don’t spend enough on defense, but from authoritarian leaders who seek to undermine the United States and intimidate its allies to reshape the regional order in ways that make it safe for dictators to bully free societies.   

Dr. Scott W. Harold is associate director of the RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy, and a political scientist at the non-profit, non-partisan RAND Corporation, as well as a member of the Pardee RAND Graduate School faculty.

Image: U.S. Navy