Make no mistake. The Greek referendum was a defeat of German leadership in Europe.

True, whatever happens from here, the economic pain will fall on Greece and its people. But the big loser from last weekend's far-from-pointless referendum will be Germany. Whether a new deal is reached which still contains the element of 'punishment' the German Government considers so important to impose, or Greece defaults and leaves the euro, Germany will have shredded its claim to leadership in Europe. For that leadership will have been shown to rest not on consent or voluntary submission to a strong Germany claiming to act in the interests of all, but on force and the threat of economic Armageddon.

Kissinger saw power (the perception of what is possible in relations between states) and legitimacy (the perception of what is just) as the two inseparable elements of a stable international order. In a classic miscalculation of its own interests, Germany has traded legitimacy for power. There's no going back now.

This piece first appeared in the Lowy Interpreter here. 

Image: Creative Commons 3.0.