Meanwhile the Philippines would be the most willing to participate in the second tier, while Malaysia, Vietnam, and Brunei could all potentially take part. In addition to providing valuable air facilities, several of these countries might soon field upgraded MPA capabilities. For instance, Philippines defense observer Armando Heredia says acquiring capable “long-range patrol aircraft is part of the current ‘horizon’ ending in 2017 of the Philippine’s Three Horizon defense plan.” At the Wall Street Journal, Trevor Moss says Malaysia “was made aware of its weak maritime patrol capabilities by the invasion of East Malaysia by Filipino militants in 2013 and the disappearance of Flight MH370 and subsequent search operations in 2014,” driving an “aim to buy six to eight surveillance aircraft in the near future.”

Initially limiting the initiative to air patrols would remove the complications stemming from law enforcement vessels in disputed EEZs and territorial waters, but likewise limit the potential of the common operating picture. At some point, participants might have to decide whether the sovereignty issues can be set aside or a creative solution agreed upon, such as limiting vessels tasked to the initiative to patrolling EEZs undisputed by any other EEZ, thereby side-stepping the complication on the Nine-Dash Line as long as it remains unclarified.

Another wrinkle would be the potential participation of Taiwan with its airstrip on Itu Aba and its P-3C aircraft. Taiwan’s participation would likely be opposed by China, but not necessarily so, if the initiative emphasized MDA for regional maritime security and a de-emphasized military dimensions. Regardless, an invitation to Taiwan, like the conditions for joining, might make the initiative a “poison pill” to China that yet appears reasonable enough to placate the concerns of non-confrontational Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam, and Malaysia.

This piece first appeared on the Asia Maritime Transparency initiatives website here.

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author’s alone do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Navy.

Image: Flickr/Creative Commons.