And for Washington, try to fathom why China does what it does. Take your inspiration from the classical Chinese general Sun Tzu, who exhorts commanders and statesmen to know themselves and their foes to prevail in tests of strength. The better U.S. leaders know China and what drives it, the better their chances of preserving Taiwan’s de facto independence while averting a maelstrom that serves no one well—including China. There’s some wisdom from the masters.

James Holmes is Professor of Strategy at the Naval War College and coauthor of Red Star over the Pacific (second edition forthcoming 2018). The views voiced here are his alone.

Image: Chinese paramilitary policemen take part in training match in Jinzhong, Shanxi Province. Reuters/Stringer.