For Tehran, sanctions are too severe to circumvent by the old means. The U.S.-led assault on Iran’s banking infrastructure, shipping lines and oil exports has forced the Islamic Republic to create new methods of trade. And the Arab Spring is challenging U.S. and Iranian influence in the Middle East. Neither country really wants a collision—war would be disastrous for both—but that is where the status quo appears to be headed.

The Challenge

The future of U.S.-Iran relations will be complicated and difficult, and there’s no single or simple answer. But policy makers in Washington and Tehran have an opportunity to move past the mutually damaging myths. Decades of mistrust and zero-sum regional competition have entrenched these narratives and perpetuated mutual hostility. How long can the “cold peace” equilibrium really last?

Reza Marashi is director of research at the National Iranian American Council. Reza Sanati is a research fellow at the Middle East Studies Center.