Yet this change within Likud may be negated by almost the opposite development within another component of the Israel's current coalition government—the Sephardic Orthodox party Shas. While the party's positions on key issues seem to be determined solely by its supreme leader, the 91-year old Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, his political lieutenants yield considerable influence as well. And there, the party's leader and Minister of Interior Eli Yishai has recently been forced to share power with the charismatic Aryeh Deri. The latter is known to be very pragmatic on foreign and defense affairs; before serving time in prison on corruption charges, Deri was a close ally of the late Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. More broadly, Shas leaders attach great importance to maintaining Israel’s close ties with the U.S. and are thus sensitive to Washington's concerns—a tendency which is likely to only deepen with Deri's return to power.

Proceed With Caution

It seems likely that following Israel's January 22 elections Benjamin Netanyahu will form a Likud-Yisrael Beiteinu-led Israeli government. But this is not a foregone conclusion.

Much depends on the precise results and the post-election negotiations on coalition formation. With a proportional elections system, small differences in the relative power of Israel's many political parties may significantly impact the composition of a governing coalition. Until the power ratios within Israel's next government are clarified and it becomes clear who will hold the key cabinet positions, it remains difficult to assess the impact of such developments on Israeli decisions regarding Iran.

Shai Feldman is the Judith and Sidney Swartz Director of Brandeis University’s Crown Center for Middle East Studies and a Senior Fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.

This article, in its original form, was commissioned for a joint Center for the National Interest-George Washington University workshop on Iran, held in November 2012 at Wye.

Image: Israel Defense Force, CC BY 2.0.