What’s more, if the United States arms only those identified as moderates, surely the nonmoderates will seek their own sources of arms. They have bled and died in large numbers and have been the most formidable fighters against Assad. They have their own vision of Syria’s future and are hardly likely to let the United States rob them of their dreams just because Washington has decided who should determine it.

A Long-Term Drama?

What the future holds may not be Assad’s victory or the opposition’s triumph. Syria could metamorphose into what Lebanon was between 1975 and 1990—an anarchy in which ethnic and religious militias battled for primacy, with surrounding states intervening in support of their clients. That denouement will require that the administration decide what role it envisages for the United States in the chaos, what the objectives are, and how it will go about achieving them.

So there are many questions that need clear answers, but the administration hasn’t provided them. Maybe the president does have the answers and doesn’t want to reveal them as a matter of strategy. One must hope this is the case because he has decided to take a step that will almost certainly require other steps, ones that could have large consequences. The president is said to be practical and risk averse. “No Drama Obama” is not given to making big moves. But a small move can fail to have the intended result and, in consequence, offer the unpalatable choice between retreat and deeper involvement.

Rajan Menon is the Anne and Bernard Spitzer Professor of Political Science at the City College of New York/City University of New York, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and the author, most recently, of The End of Alliances.