In Bahrain, the 2001 "Dawn of Democracy" has turned out to be a false dawn. Their prince's fear of Iran-thanks to what has been happening in Iraq-has led to a betrayal of reform. The reform fiction is emblazoned in gerrymandering so flagrant that a two-thirds Shi'a majority is legislatively disempowered.  And in Saudi Arabia, reforms are going nowhere fast, and cannot be usefully encouraged by the United States, except at the ethereal margins of "public diplomacy." The much-heralded Shura council is just so much eye candy for American consumption.

So, in the end, our dark narrative prevents us from distinguishing reform and resistance movements we can live with from groups we absolutely must destroy. The Long War narrative cannot conceive of legitimate Muslim resistance against tyranny (unless of course, like Lebanon or Iran, we are in favor of it first). Thus authentic resistance is automatically lumped with Takfiri evil.

 

Shining as True Apostates

 

And if the current Long War narrative is invoked in event of a war or armed clash with Iran, what may result?  A Persian-American war could potentially elevate Iran's standing even among a majority Sunni umma. Even now Muslims view Iran as the only nation-state that stands up to U.S. power. A conflict with Iran would fully consolidate Muslim hostility and the perception that America represents the evil force in the world-the Dajjal-directly threatening Islam's very survival. Thus even Shi‘i Iran might-in this exceptional situation-represent itself as the leader of Muslim resistance against the dark force. Thus one of the consequences of a Persian-American war would be to divide the Muslim world between those who resist evil and those who collaborate with it. This means that the rulers of Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the Gulf princelings-U.S. "friends and allies" all-would now shine as true apostate traitors to Islam. They would be under enormous pressure: either to renounce their relationship with the Americans or risk internal collapse (from coup, civil war, insurgency). Either way we lose.

The Long War is a failed narrative because it does not describe actual reality. Reality tells a story of an America delivering change to the Muslim World, a force of creative destruction. If anything, this American-created reality only fires up the longstanding Muslim grand narrative of deliverance and restoration. Moreover, the Long War perversely elevates the Takfiri narrative by telling Muslims that we are the dark force that must be resisted.

The Long War is thus more than a failed narrative-it is a self-defeating narrative. It has prospered only because it speaks to a highly motivated domestic audience, i.e., the conservative base that remains the passionate heart of administration war policy.

There was an old theater in Montmartre that specialized in sensational and horrifying dramatic entertainments. It was called the Grand Guignol. It is a fitting name for the strategy-trumping, domestic political theater of our imperial court.

 

Michael Vlahos is Principal Professional Staff at the National Security Analysis Department of the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.