If there is a consensus, it may be this: President Xi knows that rising public pressure means he soon must back some reforms that are more than superficial, even if they are less than fundamental. More sweeping changes could follow the next party congress in five years when four current standing-committee members must retire, allowing Xi to install his own team and operate with greater authority. But given the opaque nature of Chinese politics, all predictions are dangerous.

Robert Keatley is a former editor of the Asian Wall Street Journal and the South China Morning Post, both of Hong Kong.