Nevertheless, the primary obstacle hindering any progress in advancing relations lies in Vietnam's apprehension of provoking China without a clear and tangible benefit. Unless the United States actively pressures the situation, it would require China's aggressive behavior in the region to escalate to a level where Vietnam deems it imperative to enhance its relations to deter Chinese actions. Nonetheless, we are currently distant from such a scenario, and it would be imprudent to anticipate any immediate official upgrade in relations.

Vincenzo Caporale has a BA from UC Berkeley in Comparative Politics and an M.Phil from the University of Cambridge in International Relations. He is currently an Editor at Large at the Realist Review and a Contributor at Modern Diplomacy. His work focuses on development and geopolitics in Southeast Asia. You can reach Vincenzo or follow his work on Twitter @VincenzoCIV.

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