Beware the Islamic State's Staying Power

August 23, 2015 Topic: Security Tags: ISISTerrorismDefense

Beware the Islamic State's Staying Power

"American military power, though formidable, cannot vanquish IS, and even its efficacy against terrorism is debatable."

The upshot is not, however, that military power, even when limited to airstrikes, is in fact an effective, let alone essential, response to IS. To the contrary: relying on this blunt instrument will increase the risk of terrorism, which IS will use as a means of retaliation. Moreover, for all the talk of surgical airstrikes, the civilian deaths, economic destruction, and demographic displacements that inevitably follow will stoke anti-Americanism, encouraging acts of revenge. While some of these terrorist attacks may emanate from abroad, recent incidents on American soil show that radicalization doesn’t require ties to foreign groups.

The best way to thwart terrorism in the United States is through an integrated, sustained strategy that, with due regard to citizens’ rights, combines intelligence gathering, law enforcement, and homeland security. Paralleling these measures should be policies designed to foster cohesion, social mobility, and stake holding in what is an American society of multiple faiths and cultures. This workaday approach will lack the drama of war, but will be no less effective for that.

The Caliphate, by virtue of its agenda, does present a serious threat to the countries in and around its neighborhood. But they must take the lead in addressing it. The United States can assist in various ways short of military intervention, above all helping to forge a political settlement in Syria and pressing Iraq’s government to integrate Sunnis into its political institutions. Progress on both these fronts is essential because the bloodletting and sectarian divisions in Iraq and Syria have been a boon for IS.

American military power, though formidable, cannot vanquish IS, and even its efficacy against terrorism is debatable. Keep this in mind. Once the presidential campaign cranks up there will be a continual cacophony of claims from candidates that they, unlike their rivals, have the courage to bring the hammer down on the Caliphate.

Rajan Menon is Anne and Bernard Spitzer Professor of Political Science at the Colin Powell School of the City College of New York/City University of New York and a Senior Research Scholar at the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace at Columbia University. His most recent book (coauthored with Eugene B. Rumer) is Conflict in Ukraine: The Unwinding of the Post-Cold War Order (MIT Press, 2015); his next book, The Conceit of Humanitarian Intervention, will be published by Oxford University Press in 2016.

Image: U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Eli J. Medellin