In a historic moment for Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum has become the country’s first female president. She inherits a landscape filled with challenges, ranging from emboldened criminal organizations to strained relations with Mexico’s top trading partner, the United States. Sheinbaum’s national security strategy, which contrasts sharply with that of her predecessor, focuses on reviving bilateral cooperation while navigating the complex demands of Donald Trump’s incoming administration.

The tone of the bilateral relationship was set early in Sheinbaum’s first call with President-elect Donald Trump. Trump announced that Sheinbaum agreed to stop the flow of migrants to the United States and to close the U.S. southern border. Sheinbaum clarified that her country’s position is to build bridges between governments, not shut down borders. Despite their differing accounts of the call, Mexico has expressed a willingness to address pressing issues on the bilateral agenda, including migration and drug trafficking.

Yet, the future of U.S.-Mexico relations looks grim. President-elect Donald Trump has proposed a possible renegotiation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and the imposition of a 25 percent blanket tariff on all Mexican imports if Claudia Sheinbaum’s government fails to reduce the flow of fentanyl, organized crime, and migrants to the southern border of the United States. Despite the challenges, Sheinbaum’s proposed security strategy offers a glimmer of hope for the strengthening of bilateral relations. With her apparent understanding of the interconnectedness of migration, security, and trade, she has unveiled a bold national security plan that prioritizes combatting transnational criminal organizations. Unlike former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (AMLO) controversial “hugs, not bullets” strategy, which focused on addressing the root causes of violence over direct confrontation, Sheinbaum’s approach emphasizes investigation and intelligence gathering, inter-agency coordination, and targeting high-profile criminals in the country’s six most violent states. 

Central to this effort is Omar García Harfuch, Mexico’s new Secretary of Security and Civilian Protection. García Harfuch is a seasoned police officer who previously served as Sheinbaum’s police chief during her tenure as mayor of Mexico City and is credited for reducing the homicide rate in the nation’s capital by half. He is no stranger to the dangers of his work, having survived an assassination attempt by the Jalisco Nueva Generación Cartel in 2020. At a time when AMLO’s government turned its back on the U.S., García Harfuch collaborated closely with U.S. security agencies at the local level. His appointment by President Sheinbaum was well received by U.S. agencies, who are cautiously optimistic that bilateral security cooperation will be revamped under his leadership.

For U.S.-Mexico relations, the stakes couldn’t be higher. President Sheinbaum understands what lies ahead for the future of Mexico’s relationship with its top trading partner if her government fails to combat organized crime effectively. The incoming Trump administration has made it clear that failure to address the fentanyl crisis—which claimed over 100,000 American lives in 2022—will carry severe economic and political consequences for Mexico.

In recent weeks, Secretary Garcia Harfuch announced that over a ton of fentanyl pills were seized in Mexico, the largest in the country’s history. Sheinbaum’s security cabinet continues to double down on efforts in the battle-scarred state of Sinaloa, a move that signals a willingness to disrupt the operations of the Sinaloa and Jalisco Nueva Generación cartels, the primary suppliers of fentanyl to the United States. President Sheinbaum may not have traveled to Mar-a-Lago to meet with Trump, but her government has taken concrete actions to demonstrate its commitment to meeting U.S. demands.

However, it will be a difficult task to accomplish as bilateral security cooperation declined under AMLO’s presidency. From the outset of his administration (2018–2024), AMLO held a deep distrust of U.S. security agencies, calling for an end to the Merida Initiative, which sought to dismantle criminal organizations, strengthen Mexico’s rule of law, modernize the border, and help violence-ridden communities. Despite its shortcomings, the Merida Initiative was a blueprint for bilateral security cooperation that established an understanding of the shared objectives and challenges both countries faced. 

In 2021, the U.S. and Mexico laid out a strategy to restore faith in security cooperation efforts with the creation of the Bicentennial Framework for Security, Public Health, and Safe Communities. While offering a long-term vision for security cooperation, it lacks clear metrics to measure its success. Trump and Sheinbaum will have to determine whether the Bicentennial Framework will continue to guide security objectives going forward or whether a new plan will be needed. 

The two nations must first reestablish mutual trust between their respective security agencies. Events that occurred under AMLO’s government, like the arrest of former Secretary of National Defense Salvador Cienfuegos by DEA agents at Los Angeles International Airport and the detention and subsequent release of Ovidio Guzman, the son of notorious kingpin Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, marked major blows for bilateral security efforts. The tremendous show of force that the Sinaloa Cartel carried out after Ovidio’s arrest in Sinaloa proved evident that certain areas of Mexico are completely overtaken by criminal organizations powerful enough to challenge Mexican security forces.

The fallout from AMLO’s policies remains evident. He consistently argued that no country, particularly the United States, could intervene in Mexico’s internal affairs nor infringe on its sovereignty. What AMLO failed to understand is that the United States will go to great lengths to protect its national security interests, whether through joint actions with Mexico or, if needed, unilaterally. The strange series of events that led to the arrest of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, one of the founders of the Sinaloa Cartel, and Joaquin Guzman Lopez (another of “El Chapo’s” sons) in Texas earlier this year is evidence of the latter. The same will hold true under the incoming administration, which has threatened to designate Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations and touted the possibility of intervening militarily in Mexico.

In his final month in office, and after the governing party’s landslide victory in Mexico’s June elections, AMLO’s constitutional reform to place the National Guard under the Ministry of Defense (Sedena) complicated prospects for U.S.-Mexico security collaboration. Historically, Mexico’s military has been wary of working with U.S. counterparts, a stance that could impede joint efforts under Sheinbaum’s leadership.

Much hinges on the direction in which Sheinbaum takes her government. President-elect Trump’s threat of placing a 25 percent tariff on Mexican imports depends in large part on the ability of Sheinbaum’s security strategy to produce immediate results. By prioritizing collaboration and demonstrating a firm resolve against organized crime, her administration has an opportunity to reset the tone of U.S.-Mexico relations. The looming possibility of tariffs, mass deportations of undocumented migrants, and the upcoming USMCA 2026 review process will test the bilateral relationship. For now, both countries remain at a crossroads, with their leaders tasked with navigating one of the most consequential partnerships in the world. 

However, Sheinbaum’s security plan offers a cautiously optimistic path for improving bilateral security cooperation and restoring peace to Mexico. The coming years will reveal whether U.S.-Mexico relations will be a continuation of past struggles or a positive turning point for the two nations. 

Lila Abed is the Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute Director. She previously served as a correspondent for NTN24 and as a Public Policy Advisor at Covington & Burling.

Image: Israel Gutierrez / Shutterstock.com.