China Will Make Sure It Has Its Say at the Trump-Kim Summit in Singapore

June 8, 2018 Topic: Security Region: Asia Tags: ChinaNorth KoreaAmericaTrumpKim Jong UnXi Jinping

China Will Make Sure It Has Its Say at the Trump-Kim Summit in Singapore

China hopes to influence North Korea as a means of strategically competing in Asia but is on alert that America will attempt to do the same. 

 

In his six-month-long career as a diplomat, the formerly reclusive Kim has demonstrated natural instincts for foreign policy maneuvering. Although commentators interpreted Kim’s trips to China as evidence of Xi’s insecurity at being left out, it is equally possible that Kim himself initiated the meeting, to receive assurance that he had one great power behind him. Also notable was that, after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo suggested North Korea did not have a plane, Kim flew to that meeting rather than taking the traditional train—proof to the world that he did, in fact, own one. And several weeks later, when Trump canceled the summit, reportedly in part because of difficulty on the North Korean side, Kim appeared publically to be the more predictable player of the two.

Kim's actions have caught the attention of and created suspicion among, great powers. As Chinese historian Shen Zhihua has noted, this is not the first time a Korean leader has used competition between great powers to his advantage. In 1960, Kim's grandfather, Kim Il-sung, successfully exploited the Sino-Soviet split to receive economic assistance from both the Soviet Union and China. Nearly sixty years later, the competition centers on the U.S. and China but also extends beyond them, to several of America's adversaries. As a North Korean delegation headed by former spymaster Kim Yong Chol met with Pompeo in New York and then with Trump in the White House, Kim welcomed Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov to Pyongyang. During that meeting, Kim said he looked forward to working with Lavrov “in the face of U.S. hegemonism.” Also, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is due to meet Kim next.

 

For seven decades, U.S. efforts with North Korea have failed. Today, for better or worse, Kim’s willingness to engage the outside world, and Trump’s willingness to engage him, mark a new chapter. By happening at all, the summit will be history-making, as the first-ever meeting between a sitting American president and a North Korean leader. That is why, on June 12, all eyes will be on Trump and Kim as they meet in Singapore. But out of the spotlight—2,500 miles away, in Beijing—will be another leader who played just as large a role in shaping what happens there.

Patrick M. Cronin is senior director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS).

Sarah Donilon is the editor of the Yale Journal, The Politic, and currently interning at CNAS.

Image: Reuters