At its core, then, China’s mulling of the risks and benefits of a more active pursuit of global leadership reveals its judgment that the country cannot entrust the protection of its interests to the goodwill of its chief competitor. Only by building the national power to back up China’s demands, Beijing appears to have concluded, can its interests be protected. The deep roots of that lesson, as illustrated by the example of May Fourth, suggests China will not be easily dissuaded from this view.

Prospects for long-term, stable Sino-American cooperation will therefore hinge in part on how the United States manages its divergent interests with an increasingly powerful China. Resolution will not be easy, as this could require concessions on highly contentious issues. Concessions carry the price of damaging the interests of U.S. allies and partners and, in some cases, the United States itself. The alternative is to resist Beijing’s demands and make China bear the higher cost to its interests. But this requires a high degree of coordination and unity between the United States, its allies, and other world powers that would be difficult to achieve, let alone sustain. Moreover, it carries the risk of escalating tensions to the point of a dangerous rivalry.

Some combination of the two approaches will likely be necessary to shape cooperation on global issues in a manner that minimizes the risk of global instability. Even so, policymakers should set expectations at a realistic level.

Greater Chinese collaboration with the United States on global issues offers hope for progress on a small number of international issues, including humanitarian assistance and climate change. Tremendous effort will be required, however, to ensure that the broader competitive dynamics do not overwhelm that cooperation.

Timothy R. Heath is a Senior International Defense Research Analyst at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation. He is the author of the book, China’s New Governing Party Paradigm: Political Renewal and the Pursuit of National Rejuvenation (Ashgate, 2014).