Will Others Follow?

While Haiti is a failed state and Cuba is a weak state, the rest of the Caribbean is not without its challenges to statehood. Much of it is caused by gang violence, which is worsened by the influence of drug trafficking and intense competition for drug routes. According to Statista, in 2022, Jamaica topped the list of homicide rates with 52.9 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants, with Trinidad and Tobago in third place and Belize in eighth place. Puerto Rico rounded out the top ten.

While violent crime related to drug trafficking has a track record in Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago, places such as St. Lucia are now being affected. In 2021 and 2022, St. Lucia saw record numbers of murders. The Eastern Caribbean country’s crime problem stems from several factors: the island-state has emerged as a transit hub for South American cocaine destined for North American and European markets, gangs are well-equipped with weapons smuggled from the United States, and local authorities are out-gunned. In 2023, St. Lucian prime minister Philip J. Pierre requested assistance from the Regional Security System, which includes most of the Eastern Caribbean, Barbados, and Guyana.

The rise of violent crime is eroding the social contract between Caribbean states and their citizens. Corruption is also hurting the Caribbean brand of democracy in places like the Dominican Republic, Suriname, and Jamaica. According to the Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index, in terms of points (with 100 as a perfect score), Barbados fell from 76 in 2012 to 65 in 2022, the Bahamas from 71 to 64, and St. Lucia from 71 to 55. Corruption is eating away at citizens’ faith in their political institutions and leaders. According to Trinidad and Tobago’s intelligence body, the Strategic Service Agency (SSA), the gangs have moved beyond extortion and drug sales to becoming community leaders and being awarded numerous contracts to do public works as well as “illegal quarrying (sand mining), fraud-scheming, money laundering, black market sale and resale of U.S. currency, party and events promotion, organized robbery, motor vehicle larceny, counterfeiting, human smuggling and illegal gambling.”

Although several CARCOM countries have undergone political violence in the past (Jamaica in the 1970s, Grenada 1979–1983, Trinidad and Tobago’s Jamaat al Muslimeen coup attempt in 1990, and Suriname’s Interior War in 1986–1992), political violence has waned. Most governments now face transnational and domestic criminal gang violence, which is more unpredictable and threatening to the average citizen due to a certain degree of randomness. And CARICOM-related regional mechanisms (law enforcement and legal/governance) are either out-matched or simply overwhelmed by the sheer depth of actions and resources of bad actors.

Another challenge related to the ability of Caribbean governments to deliver political goods to their citizens is climate change. The region is struggling with increasingly more violent hurricanes, droughts, salination of freshwater sources, and eroding coastlines. There are also problems with dying coral reefs, overfishing, sargassum (floating mats of brown seaweed that rot on the beach), and the discharge of wastewater from cruise ships. If Caribbean governments are unable to resolve these problems, they risk their legitimacy by not fulfilling their part of the pact with their citizens. Many Caribbean governments are speaking out on this matter, such as Barbados, whose Prime Minister Mia Mottley has called for better financing mechanisms to help the region through a restructuring of the major multilateral lending organizations.

Does Washington Want a Failed Neighboring Region?

For the United States, Caribbean security is highly important, though it is sometimes lost in the shuffle of diplomatic priorities. Nonetheless, Washington must get tougher on the flow of illicit weapons to the Caribbean, curb its own domestic drug use, expand the Caribbean Basin Security Initiative (CBISI) program, and rethink its Cuba policy (particularly as Havana is deepening its relations with Beijing and Moscow).

Greater engagement is also needed to help build sustainability and resilience vis-à-vis problems related to climate change and to help improve governance, something to which the Biden administration has been sympathetic to. But more is needed. The Caribbean has failed and weak states, but it is not a zone of instability; Washington should want to keep it that way.

Dr. Scott B. MacDonald is the Chief Economist for Smith’s Research & Gradings, a Fellow with the Caribbean Policy Consortium, and a Research Fellow with Global Americans. Prior to those positions, he worked for the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Credit Suisse, Donaldson, Lufkin and Jenrette, KWR International, and Mitsubishi Corporation. His most recent book is The New Cold War, China and the Caribbean (Palgrave Macmillan 2022).

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