This week, Hamas agreed to return dozens of the hostages kidnapped from Israeli farms and border towns on October 7, 2023. For the more than 100 grieving families, this is good news.

Some will be reunited with their loved ones, while others will receive tangible reasons to sustain their hope. It is a seismic victory for the United States and a major turning point for the Middle East. 

Representatives of both President Biden and President-elect Donald Trump were in the room for key negotiations in Qatar—a remarkable cooperation across party lines just months after a divisive election. This united front gave the terror group some assurance that any deal would last past the inauguration of President Trump on January 20.

Nevertheless, it is important to be honest: This prisoner swap would not have been possible without the decisive intervention of President-elect Trump. His man was in the room when key decisions were made in the negotiations, and Mr. Trump’s social-media threats to “unleash Hell” if the hostages were not freed before his inauguration certainly sped minds in Gaza and Tehran along. Mr. Trump’s unsubtle but effective methods, his undeniable pragmatism, and his carefully calibrated threats tipped the scales in favor of this agreement.

This ceasefire, however fragile, could offer an unexpected opportunity to free another group of hostages: the Palestinians in Gaza, who are prisoners of the remnants of Hamas.

Mr. Trump has said it many times: the Middle East must choose between modernity and an Islamism blinded by obscurantism. The people of the region must make this choice themselves and choose a better future by offering their youth progress and hope.

The Middle East is undeniably on the cusp of radical change, marked by the progressive weakening of one of the pillars of the so-called “Axis of Resistance.” These forces—Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Assad regime, Hamas, and their regional supporters, notably Iran—are today weakened by major geopolitical developments and internal pressures.

Hezbollah, long considered an almost untouchable force, is gravely wounded. Its founder and leaders are dead, its foot soldiers scattered, and its arsenals smashed. It is still a deadly, not spent, force. Still, its popular support is gone among the Lebanese, who are financially and emotionally drained and tired of the clannish war spirit that Hezbollah embodies. The recent election of General Joseph Aoun to the Lebanese presidency foretells a gradual dissolution of Hezbollah’s armed wing. 

Indeed, Mr. Aoun publicly said that only uniformed members of the Lebanese forces should carry arms—a direct challenge to Hezbollah and its allied militias. President Aoun will need the support of the West to make this disarmament stick, as well as technical and financial aid to build a modern state with robust democratic institutions free from the cruel logic of factionalism and sectarianism that finds advantage in division.

In Syria, the reconstruction project cannot be limited to infrastructure. The formation of new Syrian institutions will absolutely have to embrace democratic principles to allow the country to escape the spiral of violence and despotism. This transition will require international assistance to clear away sanctions, rebuild roads, hospitals, and schools, and, most critically, legal reforms to allow democratic institutions to grow roots and bloom.

As for the Palestinian people, they are also at a decisive turning point. Pointless internal divisions and obsolete visions must be cast aside. The young dreamers of the 1960s are old or dead; their dreams have failed to produce either peace or prosperity. Instead, cool-headed pragmatists should lead, who welcome peaceful coexistence with Israel and give themselves space to build homes, schools, clinics, and stores. The challenge today is not in the debates on the creation of a Palestinian state but in changing minds to accept those who worship differently. It will be up to the Palestinian people to choose and define how they wish to live in peace with Israel. This process of mutual acceptance is the real lever to open a new era, far from past conflicts.

The signatory nations of the Abraham Accords, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, and Bahrain, bear a historic responsibility. They must lead this transformation and pose as enlightened guides for this metamorphosis. Saudi Arabia has been called to join this peace rally, as have Indonesia, Mauritania, Senegal, Somalia, Lebanon, Syria, and other countries. Together, these nations could form a league dedicated to peace and prosperity, building a vast and promising economic market. The old Arab League that was anchored in the past and the relitigating the Six-Day War of 1967 should be relegated to oblivion.

With such a new union, the Iranian regime could be contained and isolated, paving the way for inevitable regime change. Thus, the Iranian people, prisoners of a cruel dictatorship, could finally free themselves and take the path of modernity, progress, and freedom. 

The role of the United States in this historic advance was decisive, and so was the skill of President-elect Trump. This alliance between diplomatic continuity and renewed vision illustrates how political will can open the way to lasting peace.

Ahmed Charai is the publisher of the Jerusalem Strategic Tribune. He is on the board of directors of the Atlantic Council, the Foreign Policy Research Institute, the Center for the National Interest, and the International Advisory Council of the United States Institute of Peace.

Image: Noam Galai / Shutterstock.com.