The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea has, for the first time, sent combatant units abroad, to aid Russia in the war in Ukraine. As noted in the Joint Statement on the DPRK’s Deployment of Troops to Russia this development indelibly connects the Indo-Pacific and European theaters, testifying to the growing systemic entanglement of crises globally.  

Ukraine’s shock incursion into Kursk in early August has been diverting Russia’s attention. Although Russia has not had to redeploy troops away from Ukraine, the May-September 2024 period saw Russia’s highest rate of military losses since the war began. Additionally, Moscow has struggled to meet its recruitment goals.  

North Korean troops deployment provides an avenue for alternative force generation for Russia. Against this backdrop, the DPRK’s decision to deploy troops can be understood as a way to uphold its obligations under the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between the two countries, signed on June 19, which enshrines the immediate provision of military and other assistance if either side is in a state of war.   

While Ukrainian, U.S., and South Korean intelligence have confirmed that North Korean military personnel will be deployed primarily if not exclusively in the Kursk Oblast, the composition of this force is yet to be fully disclosed. Possibly, in the immediate future, the number of troops deployed by the DPRK will remain limited to maintain the military balance on the Peninsula, and manage and minimize the negative externalities of this deployment, such as desertion, dissent within military ranks, domestic discontent due to casualties and ideological contamination, and maximize both short and long-term benefits.  

The short-term benefits for Pyongyang are, to a degree, limited. Russia has already been providing food, oil, raw materials, and parts used in weapons manufacturing as payment for over nine million artillery shells, KN-23 and KN-24 ballistic missiles, and other weaponry. Through this deployment, North Korea might be actively seeking to receive advanced military technology, including nuclear, aviation, naval, and space-related know-how.  

Such a development would tip the balance in Northeast Asia irreversibly ensuring a sequence of escalatory actions from Japan, South Korea, and the United States.    

The most immediate advantage North Korea will gain from this deployment will be exposure to the dynamics of modern combat, which would aid Pyongyang in understanding state-of-the-art military technologies and equip its military with practical on-the-ground experience. This will, in turn, have a long-term effect on North Korea’s military doctrine, allowing it to convert the lessons learned on the battlefield into strategies for better asymmetric and defense warfare especially in the face of technologically superior adversaries such as the United States and South Korea.  

Additionally, the deployment of troops in Russia and the promise of payment from Moscow, set for $2000 per soldier, serves the purpose of replenishing Pyongyang’s coffers. Somewhat in line with the DPRK’s traditional practice of utilizing North Korean workers overseas, which as of 2023 were estimated to inject back into the DPRK an annual revenue of 500 million dollars, this deployment is testimony to the country’s need for hard currency to complete the various projects and plans Kim Jong Un has launched over the last few years.  

Beyond the direct benefits for Pyongyang, North Korea’s troop deployment indelibly connects the European and Indo-Pacific theaters testifying to the rapid worsening of the ongoing great power competition. North Korea’s deployment of troops in concomitance with the escalation of military action on both Russia’s and Ukraine’s side, and possible direct involvement of South Korea in the conflict through direct lethal aid support to Kyiv potentially prolong the continuation of the War in Ukraine, beyond the mandate of the incoming Trump administration.  

North Korea’s involvement could not only prompt a more direct South Korean involvement but may also accelerate decisions regarding intervention in various European capitals indirectly proving beneficial to Washington if one takes into consideration that the various fronts the U.S. is currently either directly militarily involved in or supporting through lethal aid or other donations is straining its resources.   

Riccardo Villa is the Project Coordinator and Junior Research Fellow at ISDP’s Asia Program and Korea Center and also serves as Director of Security Affairs at The New Global Order, a Rome-based think tank. He is also a Kelly A. Korea Fellow at the Pacific Forum, conducting research on nuclear non-proliferation, military advancements, and innovation on the Korean Peninsula. His research primarily addresses inter-Korean relations and Northeast Asia's security dynamics, specializing in arms control and mediation. 

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