However, it would be unrealistic to expect him to change. Erdogan is unforgiving, rarely admits to mistakes, and has surrounded himself with an echo chamber. His combative style is at the heart of his populist-authoritarian persona. It has allowed him to dominate the center stage and all political conversation in Turkey, and he will have trouble accepting the new political reality. Mindful that instability and authoritarian rule can scare the much-needed foreign investors for the Simsek plan to succeed, Erdogan will have to exercise an element of restraint. As the Van crisis demonstrated, he will probe, push, and harass his opponents, including Imamoglu, and otherwise test the limits of what he can do. Opposition to Israel may satiate his need for international visibility on foreign policy. Still, he will find himself highly frustrated once the war is over and finds Turkey blocked from any future participation in the reconstruction of Gaza.

Henri J. Barkey is the Cohen professor of international relations at Lehigh University and an adjunct senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council of Foreign Relations. Follow him on X: @hbarkey.

Image: Alexandros Michailidis / Shutterstock.com.