Georgia in 2016 is far more politically free and competitive than it has ever been. This progress is reflected in a stronger business sector that is no longer captive to the state, respect for private property and individual rights, and a robust media environment. This is largely thanks to Ivanishvili’s influence, including over GD, and his personality. However, whenever things depend on one person, rather than institutions, dangers of one-party rule (and even the rule of one man from “behind the curtains”) are significant. Without a stronger and more diverse opposition than the one provided by UNM to keep GD in check, it is hard to imagine what will stop GD from becoming more authoritarian and corrupt over time.

UNM is the only “real” political party in Georgia with strong leadership and years of experience in government. It is, indeed, a stronger political party than GD, which would probably cease to exist without Ivanishvili. UNM has significant financial backing, and it controls the most influential source of news in Georgia, the TV station Rustavi 2, and benefits from a very strong and positive reputation in the West. For this reason, there is a significant chance that UNM will eclipse the rest of the opposition (most of which is not in parliament). In order to transform into a legitimate and responsible opposition party that can appeal to Georgians, UNM must moderate the essentially “winner-takes-all” authoritarian mentality that it practiced under Saakashvili.

Georgia’s Future and America’s Regional Interests

U.S. policymakers will have to keep a watchful eye on Georgia, because the country continues to serve as the regional proxy for the U.S.-Russian tug-of-war for influence in Central Eurasia. The most damaging element of Saakashvili’s legacy is that his blunders and authoritarianism undermined America’s reputation and power in both Georgia as well as the region more broadly. Had Saakashvili not stepped into Putin’s trap, giving him an opening to occupy Georgia, the precedent that enabled Russia’s future incursion into Ukraine most likely would not have been established.

U.S. officials should pay close attention to what Georgians refer to as Russia’s “creeping occupation” of its regions, as well as to GD’s rhetoric and policies with respect to its Russian neighbor. GD has taken a more conciliatory approach to Russia than did Saakashvili. But as the New York Times reported recently, the sentiment of the ruling party is that this has not paid off, with Prime Minister Giorgi Kvirikashvili stating that “there is no improvement” in relations with Russia, since the fence that Russia started to build in 2013 has been inching further into Georgian territory since. Indeed, Kvirikashvili told the Times that “the only way forward for Georgia is to make the country a full member of the Western family.”

The West should be especially watchful of any signs of creeping autocracy in Georgia, and must encourage GD and Ivanishvili to respect the rights of smaller opposition parties (especially those not in parliament) and the independent media.

Giorgi Areshidze is Assistant Professor of Government at Claremont McKenna College and the author of Democratic Religion from Locke to Obama (University Press of Kansas, 2016). Born in Georgia, he has lived in the United States since he was 13. This analysis is based in part on interviews and materials collected during two recent research trips to Georgia (in October and June 2016). He would like to thank Irakly Areshidze (his brother) and Gia Areshidze (his father).

Image: Posters in Tbilisi during Georgia’s parliamentary election. Wikimedia Commons/Creative Commons/@Shuvaev