Nonetheless, Moscow and Beijing are recognizing the costs of sowing disorder and division. They may cheer a degraded international order no longer piloted by the United States, but they also realize that the ensuing chaos could exact a steep price on all players by fostering instability and uncertainty. Zimbabwe, for example, realized in 2014 that China had leveraged Western ostracism in trade relations to fashion a mercantilist connection that saw the sale of Chinese goods in exchange for agricultural and mineral resources. Moreover, African politicians, such as those in Kenya and Zimbabwe, have sought to use this to their electoral advantage—in effect, by running their political campaigns against Beijing. 

Washington’s Role

Washington should use its influence to induce the international community to renew attention to failing states by framing them as an enduring national security threat. However, the United States has not been immune to the growth in global fragility, which has led to an erosion of a domestic political consensus on what policies to pursue. The long-term sustainment of U.S. global influence is critical, however, in achieving outcomes that should be measured in decades rather than years. China, Russia, and other U.S. adversaries do not need to blindly accept continued U.S. dominance. Still, a zero-sum approach fueled by great power competition can undercut international cooperation to manage shared risks such as terrorism or new migrant flows, which can imperil political and economic stability. 

Andrew Hyde is a Director and Senior Fellow of the Multilateral Financial Diplomacy and Powering Peace programs at the Stimson Center. His areas of expertise are diplomatic engagement, national security, multilateral organizations, governance, and climate security.

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