China has long advocated for a multipolar global order to challenge the United States. In reality, however, the United States is just a dominant player in a carefully negotiated international financial system and interwoven global economy. If China seeks to build an alternative to the global economy and order, it is well within its rights to do that. It is unlikely, however, that other major economies have anything to gain by signing on to that. Instead, China will find itself increasingly limited to a rogue’s gallery of autocrats leading weak economies. Russia, which every day inches closer to becoming a failed state, is currently China’s largest ally. And certainly, Iran, Syria, Venezuela, North Korea, and Cuba would love to continue to align with China—but all of those countries combined have a GDP less than that of the Netherlands. This axis of authoritarians is hardly the sort of economic behemoth to fundamentally challenge the global economic order.

Path 4: Regression

Finally, China could downshift its high-octane economy and return to its roots as a producer of low-cost goods for export to the economies that are still within its orbit—the emerging economies of the Global South. And while the citizens of Kenya and Ecuador may resent China’s role in building overly expensive or unusable infrastructure under opaque and corruption-laden conditions, they still may be willing to sign up for cheap Chinese-made consumer products.

All Eyes on Xi

Ultimately, much will turn on what Xi, himself, wants to become. Does he seek a Vladimir Putin-like role as the king of a crumbling kingdom, or as a savvy technocrat that pivoted his country away from disaster by reengaging with the West? As the recent reversal of China’s zero-coronavirus policy shows, it is not impossible for Xi to abruptly change course.

China, as a country of citizens, must also choose its path—does it want to be led by a short-sighted CCP into an axis of weak authoritarian states that are surely on the downslope of history or does it want to re-engage with the global order as an economic leader that constructively engages with the Western world?

If today, Beijing maintained the status quo with Taiwan, provided substantial rights to the Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities, and removed onerous laws aimed at appropriate due diligence, Xi could re-inject China into the global order and be a peer to the United States for the next fifty years. If, instead, he digs in his heels and pushes disengagement with the West, Xi is very likely to become the leader most responsible for destroying his own standing on the global center stage.

Elaine Dezenski is senior director and head of the Center on Economic and Financial Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of The National Interest or its editors.

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