Statements made in recent weeks do not hold together. Russia cannot be “allowed” to win, but the West lacks the means to defeat Russia. The Western alliance lacks the desire or the means to take the initiative in Ukraine. For all the bluster about how the West must not self-deter and cross Russia’s redlines without fear, there is no real appetite to engage in brinksmanship over a Russia-NATO war.

The lack of realism in Western discourse is clear. There is indeed a serious risk that, rather than the West teaching Russia a lesson and putting Putin in his place, the opposite may occur. Is Russia, in fact, educating the West on what it means to use hard power and wage interstate conflict in twenty-first-century conditions? Russia advertises its version of great power sovereignty, in which a united, resilient, and unwavering state can defeat the pooled sovereignty of the EU and NATO.

We have all heard the objection that Putin simply cannot be trusted and that he wants nothing less than the complete elimination of Ukraine as an independent state. Yet, does not the blind continuation of the West’s dysfunctional Plan A also threaten the total physical destruction of Ukraine? It is for this reason that Pope Francis has called on Western leaders not to be “ashamed to negotiate before things get worse.”

A new approach to the war in Ukraine will not emerge from rhetorical and moralistic proclamations. Words alone will not prevent a Russian victory. What is needed is a clear accounting of what can be realistically achieved with the means available, as well as the cost, risks, and benefits of different scenarios. Trying what has failed before and expecting new results is, after all, not a recipe for success.

Matthew Blackburn is a Senior Researcher in NUPI’s Research Group on Russia, Asia, and International Trade. His research addresses the politics of contemporary Russia and Eurasia, including both domestic politics and interstate relations. He has also published academic and media analyses of the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war. Follow him on X: @Matthew98224147.

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